{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d99e65a-c671-40e6-bc85-5526a5f6a115", "symbol": "DBA", "name": "INVESCO DB MULTI-SECTOR COMM TR AGRICULTURE ETF USD DIS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.034, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.09, "architecture_energy": 60.506, "architecture_maturity": 8.145, "architecture_confidence": 67.32, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.29, "rotation_up": 64.61, "upward_expansion": 83.9, "deceleration": 48.45, "rotation_down": 10.1, "downward_expansion": 12.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.754, 27.470545, 27.348571, 27.206323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.62, "trend_reference": 26.898667, "distance_from_trend": 0.026817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.143458, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.873602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071789, "excess_performance": -0.053836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02194, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.666592, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4192150, "relative_activity": 0.625812, "balance": 0.666592, "dry_up": 0.617483, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024325, "annualized_volatility": 0.107097, "from_high_reference": -0.042302, "from_low_reference": 0.119787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.898667, "fair_value_reference": 24.143458, "structural_low": 25.61, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.005676, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001717, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.118145, "worst_return": -0.064407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013631, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.031023, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.114273, "worst_return": -0.06853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038259, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.032451, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.224871, "worst_return": -0.020853, 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27.047333, 26.980364, 27.109143, 26.928092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.84, "volume": 4712974, "typical_volume": 7531240.4, "trend": 26.686333, "fair_value": 23.978748, "relative_strength": -2.816801, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.942356, "energy": 35.341475, "activity_lines": [ 27.382, 27.111455, 27.183619, 27.008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.24, "volume": 3137997, "typical_volume": 7390224.55, "trend": 26.772333, "fair_value": 24.034774, "relative_strength": -0.752781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.350811, "energy": 61.22893, "activity_lines": [ 27.743333, 27.317636, 27.287524, 27.108237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.51, "volume": 4502303, "typical_volume": 7006643.45, "trend": 26.837333, "fair_value": 24.088109, "relative_strength": -4.200418, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.994533, "energy": 57.319667, "activity_lines": [ 27.754, 27.383636, 27.314619, 27.155828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.62, "volume": 4192150, "typical_volume": 6698735.45, "trend": 26.898667, "fair_value": 24.143458, "relative_strength": -6.873602, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.08991, "energy": 60.506386, "activity_lines": [ 27.754, 27.470545, 27.348571, 27.206323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }