{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d9f14b4-58ea-43be-974c-5c6e5ec75274", "symbol": "601211", "name": "Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.355, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.612, "architecture_energy": 29.879, "architecture_maturity": 27.135, "architecture_confidence": 47.301, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.6, "rotation_up": 52.38, "upward_expansion": 47.62, "deceleration": 48.43, "rotation_down": 22.18, "downward_expansion": 10.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.37, 18.25276, 17.410109, 17.388194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.91, "trend_reference": 17.758958, "distance_from_trend": 0.008505, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.528034, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.047976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096823, "excess_performance": -0.053619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1068, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 420331872, "relative_activity": 0.906184, "balance": 0.457526, "dry_up": 1.091327, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064724, "annualized_volatility": 0.297012, "from_high_reference": -0.198658, "from_low_reference": 0.224866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.758958, "fair_value_reference": 16.528034, "structural_low": 14.622003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030591, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010916, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.065618, "worst_return": -0.052142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.072753, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.501516, "worst_return": 0.021002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.156609, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.11886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273103, "worst_return": 0.133302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057525, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041869, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043834, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 18.303748, 17.571713, 16.961995, 17.276315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.219999, "volume": 577855391, "typical_volume": 455048461.1, "trend": 17.926958, "fair_value": 16.470762, "relative_strength": 6.683694, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.891785, "energy": 59.958844, "activity_lines": [ 18.689333, 18.001618, 17.183335, 17.356189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.360001, "volume": 500634942, "typical_volume": 462770741.0, "trend": 17.846958, "fair_value": 16.500871, "relative_strength": 1.756397, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.071958, "energy": 35.680493, "activity_lines": [ 18.636666, 18.20101, 17.31915, 17.384127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.91, "volume": 420331872, "typical_volume": 463848316.65, "trend": 17.758958, "fair_value": 16.528034, "relative_strength": -3.047976, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.612266, "energy": 29.878585, "activity_lines": [ 18.37, 18.25276, 17.410109, 17.388194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }