{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0da2a3ad-d265-402a-a066-94687cb3ae11", "symbol": "B3SA3", "name": "B3 S.A. - Brasil, Bolsa, Balc\u00e3o", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 68.445, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.224, "architecture_energy": 27.721, "architecture_maturity": 42.23, "architecture_confidence": 78.614, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.61, "rotation_up": 26.08, "upward_expansion": 15.7, "deceleration": 45.0, "rotation_down": 30.01, "downward_expansion": 61.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.320667, 15.177797, 15.710066, 16.16988 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.95, "trend_reference": 16.535218, "distance_from_trend": -0.095869, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.549784, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.297776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119094, "excess_performance": -0.062045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095869, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191256, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238459, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156879000, "relative_activity": 1.168277, "balance": 0.507949, "dry_up": 1.236473, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069566, "annualized_volatility": 0.291863, "from_high_reference": -0.264634, "from_low_reference": 0.2809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.535218, "fair_value_reference": 12.549784, "structural_low": 14.050154, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.047225, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.011068, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.203974, "worst_return": -0.116352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.108125, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.054279, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.405024, "worst_return": -0.226625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07869, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.047907, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.523611, "worst_return": -0.291994, "sufficient": true 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"mixed", "direction": -29.882003, "energy": 33.865389, "activity_lines": [ 15.06653, 15.132827, 16.049226, 16.376473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.44, "volume": 167922600, "typical_volume": 136320320.0, "trend": 16.438462, "fair_value": 12.521442, "relative_strength": -1.170544, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.316058, "energy": 32.37088, "activity_lines": [ 15.246667, 15.143494, 15.935312, 16.31668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.73, "volume": 162017900, "typical_volume": 135593660.0, "trend": 16.516938, "fair_value": 12.536628, "relative_strength": -1.485576, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.801094, "energy": 23.357169, "activity_lines": [ 15.440667, 15.225329, 15.857256, 16.270972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.95, "volume": 156879000, "typical_volume": 134282415.0, "trend": 16.535218, "fair_value": 12.549784, "relative_strength": -3.297776, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.223721, "energy": 27.72094, "activity_lines": [ 15.320667, 15.177797, 15.710066, 16.16988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }