{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0da3e6b8-9e4a-4e8c-a9c1-2062b7ecdc9f", "symbol": "ALRM", "name": "Alarm.com Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 5, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 75.06, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 79.387, "composite_score": 76.207, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_color": "teal", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.364, "architecture_energy": 82.736, "architecture_maturity": 18.59, "architecture_confidence": 71.515, "architecture_age_weeks": 3, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.364, "energy": 82.736, "maturity": 18.59, "confidence": 71.515, "confirmation": 68.062, "age_weeks": 3, "candidate": "upward_expansion", "candidate_weeks": 1, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "The fast Activity Lines are gaining on the slow pair and price acceptance is improving. This is earlier than a full trend confirmation: renewed bullish ordering and fan expansion are still required." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.5, "rotation_up": 83.74, "upward_expansion": 96.17, "deceleration": 39.04, "rotation_down": 8.41, "downward_expansion": 18.17 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 52.877333, "10": 50.596, "20": 48.256, "30": 47.544043 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.664498, "10": 1.267224, "20": 0.73673, "30": 0.413803 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 1.521119, "fan_width_change_4": 1.137847, "fan_width_percentile": 0.894231, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.094258, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.890594, "price_acceptance": 1.0, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.534107, "accepted_above": 1.0, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.5 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 75/100." }, "latest_close": 54.75, "sma_30": 47.305167, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.157379, "sma_30_slope": -0.015614, "fair_value": 57.044519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040223, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.137601, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 0.976045, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 19.141849, "range_position_52": 0.735033, "returns": { "13": 0.16168, "26": 0.122386, "52": 0.012951 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.037066, "52": -0.201884 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 54.82, "2": 73.29, "3": 39.84, "4": 26.71 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.157379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.015614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040223, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.137601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.00976, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.191418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.053747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2209640, "ratio_20": 0.917766, "up_down_ratio_13": 3.053747, "dry_up_ratio": 0.897884, "accumulation_weeks": 2, "distribution_weeks": 2 }, "base": { "high_26": 54.85, "low_26": 41.49, "depth": 0.243573, "compression": 0.893052, "breakout_distance": -0.001823 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.064039, "annualized_volatility": 0.341905, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.080296, "advance_from_52_low": 0.319595 }, "levels": { "breakout_reference": 54.85, "trend_reference": 47.305167, "fair_value_reference": 57.044519, "support_reference": 41.49, "range_low": 41.49, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the 26-week range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while the 30-week average falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "chart_path": [ { "week": "2023-08-11", "open": 51.37, "high": 61.78, "low": 48.61, "close": 61.01, "volume": 2012676, "sma_30": 51.106, "fair_value_history": 69.25984, "mansfield_rs": 1.245882, "stage": 1, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.193545, "architecture_energy": 67.400628, "activity_5": 55.601333, "activity_10": 53.982545, "activity_20": 52.104333, "activity_30": 51.407118 }, { "week": "2023-08-18", "open": 60.63, "high": 60.63, "low": 55.46, "close": 57.16, "volume": 1307444, 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and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. 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