{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0dab6cc0-4fc3-48a5-8fe7-8a844765f444", "symbol": "RH", "name": "RH", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.981, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.266, "architecture_energy": 78.967, "architecture_maturity": 8.332, "architecture_confidence": 46.127, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.51, "rotation_up": 74.23, "upward_expansion": 67.33, "deceleration": 23.67, "rotation_down": 16.0, "downward_expansion": 28.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2892.0, 2804.181818, 2663.011812, 2662.613122 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2892.0, "trend_reference": 2810.072339, "distance_from_trend": 0.029155, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4330.358331, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.064359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19689, "excess_performance": -0.142223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029155, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042044, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.315209, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19689, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.256831, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.256831, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020763, "annualized_volatility": 0.454979, "from_high_reference": -0.365015, "from_low_reference": 0.315143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2810.072339, "fair_value_reference": 4330.358331, "structural_low": 2199.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.057773, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.040294, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.035599, "worst_return": -0.346015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.255665, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.239532, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.249496, "worst_return": -0.372962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.220143, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.320456, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.046268, "worst_return": -0.292395, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151927, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221123, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199794, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099574, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -12.768427, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": 28.517136, "energy": 42.775574, "activity_lines": [ 2680.666667, 2590.902184, 2522.209909, 2652.152048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2892.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 310.65, "trend": 2860.239006, "fair_value": 4397.81987, "relative_strength": -12.137632, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": 35.66712, "energy": 59.504752, "activity_lines": [ 2765.2, 2661.205637, 2557.949575, 2653.883037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2892.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 297.55, "trend": 2850.272339, "fair_value": 4375.33269, "relative_strength": -11.024299, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 29.430952, "energy": 74.210088, "activity_lines": [ 2828.6, 2720.290909, 2594.924289, 2655.932134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2892.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 287.55, "trend": 2830.172339, "fair_value": 4352.845511, "relative_strength": -10.89518, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.897958, "energy": 77.363954, "activity_lines": [ 2870.866667, 2766.872727, 2630.246622, 2658.624241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2892.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 287.55, "trend": 2810.072339, "fair_value": 4330.358331, "relative_strength": -10.064359, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.266166, "energy": 78.966582, "activity_lines": [ 2892.0, 2804.181818, 2663.011812, 2662.613122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }