{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0daccc1d-d168-42a1-a767-608285c07212", "symbol": "KSA", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI SAUDI ARABIA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.853, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.961, "architecture_energy": 50.766, "architecture_maturity": 2.505, "architecture_confidence": 92.568, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.57, "rotation_up": 13.32, "upward_expansion": 10.11, "deceleration": 39.98, "rotation_down": 63.16, "downward_expansion": 85.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.208667, 37.36486, 37.696047, 37.775674 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.65, "trend_reference": 37.889158, "distance_from_trend": -0.006312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.163977, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.977353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.038241, "excess_performance": -0.163866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006312, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013468, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038241, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566328, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1960083, "relative_activity": 0.747187, "balance": 0.566328, "dry_up": 1.076813, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022177, "annualized_volatility": 0.156521, "from_high_reference": -0.067578, "from_low_reference": 0.067577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.889158, "fair_value_reference": 38.163977, "structural_low": 35.458817, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.026933, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011886, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.111574, "worst_return": -0.077636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024208, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.004496, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.152538, "worst_return": -0.078274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031712, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064377, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.177611, "worst_return": -0.097516, 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5.05364, "activity_lines": [ 37.889153, 37.939327, 38.055817, 37.982337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.25, "volume": 1457480, "typical_volume": 3311865.1, "trend": 37.751711, "fair_value": 38.184472, "relative_strength": -10.965284, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.853042, "energy": 23.445054, "activity_lines": [ 37.676841, 37.799036, 37.992426, 37.951819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.79, "volume": 3694984, "typical_volume": 3204492.65, "trend": 37.78443, "fair_value": 38.173783, "relative_strength": -10.365801, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.501423, "energy": 50.020347, "activity_lines": [ 37.286, 37.601721, 37.889006, 37.889773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.07, "volume": 1812655, "typical_volume": 2897766.95, "trend": 37.819589, "fair_value": 38.161846, "relative_strength": -8.894485, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.757911, "energy": 55.483648, "activity_lines": [ 37.121333, 37.479906, 37.811378, 37.843681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.96, "volume": 3831413, "typical_volume": 2786200.45, "trend": 37.844515, "fair_value": 38.160086, "relative_strength": -9.848291, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.608768, "energy": 65.207542, "activity_lines": [ 37.022, 37.349712, 37.72069, 37.788223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.65, "volume": 1960083, "typical_volume": 2623281.95, "trend": 37.889158, "fair_value": 38.163977, "relative_strength": -10.977353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.960655, "energy": 50.76578, "activity_lines": [ 37.208667, 37.36486, 37.696047, 37.775674 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }