{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0db4c5fd-4aa0-4ab2-b0dc-783065081fb5", "symbol": "GFEB", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - FEBRUARY", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.462, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.174, "architecture_energy": 64.359, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.723, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 62.58, "upward_expansion": 86.08, "deceleration": 53.49, "rotation_down": 25.05, "downward_expansion": 10.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.344773, 44.176569, 43.893377, 43.435453 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.71, "trend_reference": 42.889023, "distance_from_trend": 0.042458, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.540249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.056955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064524, "excess_performance": -0.061101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042458, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022513, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190988, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05057, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.870433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56741, "relative_activity": 0.73809, "balance": 2.870433, "dry_up": 0.581762, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010884, "annualized_volatility": 0.063417, "from_high_reference": -0.000559, "from_low_reference": 0.129326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.889023, "fair_value_reference": 37.540249, "structural_low": 40.4001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007452, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.005353, "regime_survival": 0.954545, "best_return": 0.033333, "worst_return": -0.032013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023764, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -8.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.062899, "worst_return": -0.004458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.055497, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.014981, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.055583, "worst_return": 0.045882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 84611.05, "trend": 42.79169, "fair_value": 37.454144, "relative_strength": -2.777198, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.173184, "energy": 62.274851, "activity_lines": [ 44.152233, 44.041995, 43.753915, 43.311691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.71, "volume": 56741, "typical_volume": 76875.45, "trend": 42.889023, "fair_value": 37.540249, "relative_strength": -5.056955, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.173941, "energy": 64.359162, "activity_lines": [ 44.344773, 44.176569, 43.893377, 43.435453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }