{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0db806c4-e423-4a65-86a5-386874a5388e", "symbol": "8012", "name": "Aljazira Takaful Taawuni Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.121, "architecture_energy": 23.067, "architecture_maturity": 45.652, "architecture_confidence": 80.103, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.15, "rotation_up": 36.63, "upward_expansion": 64.25, "deceleration": 85.28, "rotation_down": 26.0, "downward_expansion": 16.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.960667, 12.039567, 11.703472, 11.570173 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.49, "trend_reference": 11.489338, "distance_from_trend": 5.8e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.394395, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201773, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.786053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003469, "excess_performance": 0.02836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 5.8e-05, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008201, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201773, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056463, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.506302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1218349, "relative_activity": 1.610982, "balance": 1.506302, "dry_up": 1.137415, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059461, "annualized_volatility": 0.256588, "from_high_reference": -0.124238, "from_low_reference": 0.109073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.489338, "fair_value_reference": 14.394395, "structural_low": 10.36, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007576, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008532, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.094818, "worst_return": -0.076471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00358, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.058427, "worst_return": -0.065682, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.072547, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004949, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05618, "worst_return": -0.208653, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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63.165314, "energy": 72.271436, "activity_lines": [ 12.04108, 11.575808, 11.369856, 11.356647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.41, "volume": 995093, "typical_volume": 693735.1, "trend": 11.392671, "fair_value": 14.480366, "relative_strength": 6.97742, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.623719, "energy": 81.135807, "activity_lines": [ 12.255503, 11.77789, 11.479046, 11.423959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.1, "volume": 713123, "typical_volume": 684061.65, "trend": 11.419338, "fair_value": 14.455893, "relative_strength": 5.268433, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.223433, "energy": 76.647504, "activity_lines": [ 12.279333, 11.898053, 11.552141, 11.469593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.37, "volume": 615688, "typical_volume": 682314.65, "trend": 11.462004, "fair_value": 14.436945, "relative_strength": 6.935802, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.682766, "energy": 76.757379, "activity_lines": [ 12.343333, 12.045628, 11.646283, 11.530926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.06, "volume": 893644, "typical_volume": 700467.6, "trend": 11.479671, "fair_value": 14.417651, "relative_strength": 6.399389, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.392306, "energy": 44.526849, "activity_lines": [ 12.266, 12.106034, 11.70452, 11.569507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.49, "volume": 1218349, "typical_volume": 756277.05, "trend": 11.489338, "fair_value": 14.394395, "relative_strength": -0.786053, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.120762, "energy": 23.066894, "activity_lines": [ 11.960667, 12.039567, 11.703472, 11.570173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }