{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0dcb0eee-ec8a-4387-a7b6-ea6906a714fa", "symbol": "WATC", "name": "Amundi MSCI Water UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.937, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.61, "architecture_energy": 39.724, "architecture_maturity": 17.204, "architecture_confidence": 64.44, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.01, "rotation_up": 63.52, "upward_expansion": 50.25, "deceleration": 39.55, "rotation_down": 20.39, "downward_expansion": 10.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.0782, 7.0396, 6.936405, 6.929082 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.213, "trend_reference": 6.945033, "distance_from_trend": 0.038584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.702757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076124, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.606946, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017061, "excess_performance": -0.03625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038584, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065803, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007796, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017061, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799618, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47349, "relative_activity": 1.515476, "balance": 0.799618, "dry_up": 0.982568, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02295, "annualized_volatility": 0.140732, "from_high_reference": -0.010698, "from_low_reference": 0.109692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.945033, "fair_value_reference": 6.702757, "structural_low": 6.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.027398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001659, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.028372, "worst_return": 0.026424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.011507, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011507, "worst_return": -0.011507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.006393, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.003278, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.006393, "worst_return": 0.006393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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6.941, "volume": 15631, "typical_volume": 33966.1, "trend": 6.933067, "fair_value": 6.698118, "relative_strength": -3.165652, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.873072, "energy": 28.110507, "activity_lines": [ 7.021667, 6.985018, 6.903252, 6.911022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.213, "volume": 47349, "typical_volume": 31243.65, "trend": 6.945033, "fair_value": 6.702757, "relative_strength": -1.606946, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.60978, "energy": 39.724052, "activity_lines": [ 7.0782, 7.0396, 6.936405, 6.929082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }