{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0dcbe970-45bd-4ebc-8cd6-0567ec5a22f2", "symbol": "300414", "name": "Sichuan Zhongguang Lightning Protection Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.6, "architecture_energy": 45.901, "architecture_maturity": 68.488, "architecture_confidence": 86.331, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.76, "rotation_up": 25.96, "upward_expansion": 6.92, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 47.19, "downward_expansion": 77.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.003333, 11.05006, 11.807448, 12.517688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.48, "trend_reference": 13.588536, "distance_from_trend": -0.15517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.13282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.082774, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237209, "excess_performance": -0.244609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.36867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.353294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70514155, "relative_activity": 1.874657, "balance": 0.353294, "dry_up": 1.781297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103957, "annualized_volatility": 0.467955, "from_high_reference": -0.425713, "from_low_reference": 0.318025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.588536, "fair_value_reference": 10.13282, "structural_low": 8.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.001112, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007608, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.303694, "worst_return": -0.201516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.104714, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.020951, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.8224, "worst_return": -0.212329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.275974, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.078751, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.804627, "worst_return": -0.282911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.382852, "energy": 91.775348, "activity_lines": [ 10.56889, 11.1973, 12.250916, 13.021082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.27, "volume": 40899758, "typical_volume": 33459279.45, "trend": 13.881203, "fair_value": 10.115895, "relative_strength": -17.16961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.971034, "energy": 61.581359, "activity_lines": [ 10.690152, 11.116826, 12.085363, 12.849005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.97, "volume": 129112958, "typical_volume": 36046618.45, "trend": 13.704203, "fair_value": 10.117259, "relative_strength": -17.49777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.958474, "energy": 54.896509, "activity_lines": [ 10.7616, 11.019988, 11.914334, 12.661185 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.48, "volume": 70514155, "typical_volume": 37614437.15, "trend": 13.588536, "fair_value": 10.13282, "relative_strength": -17.082774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.600086, "energy": 45.901021, "activity_lines": [ 11.003333, 11.05006, 11.807448, 12.517688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }