{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ddfeb42-8ce4-4510-b724-f4b90cb37937", "symbol": "GOOC", "name": "Alphabet Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.719, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.981, "architecture_energy": 14.77, "architecture_maturity": 59.509, "architecture_confidence": 79.307, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.64, "rotation_up": 21.17, "upward_expansion": 47.59, "deceleration": 84.59, "rotation_down": 32.46, "downward_expansion": 25.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 300.943343, 303.496915, 307.892828, 300.4295 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 307.950012, "trend_reference": 291.339355, "distance_from_trend": 0.057015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 187.774979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.639995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.436476, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129144, "excess_performance": -0.045102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.639995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.287526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 706, "relative_activity": 1.184365, "balance": 0.287526, "dry_up": 1.49849, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058587, "annualized_volatility": 0.325963, "from_high_reference": -0.10365, "from_low_reference": 0.803134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 291.339355, "fair_value_reference": 187.774979, "structural_low": 238.399994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.047958, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.026519, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.191774, "worst_return": -0.105467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.058183, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.090355, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.23495, "worst_return": -0.073581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.174309, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.113953, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.305918, "worst_return": -0.023775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 184.317601, "relative_strength": -0.41991, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.60535, "energy": 22.670685, "activity_lines": [ 306.863338, 311.116196, 308.067152, 298.836926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 282.450012, "volume": 1195, "typical_volume": 557.65, "trend": 289.264513, "fair_value": 185.35983, "relative_strength": -8.968533, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.51204, "energy": 14.084486, "activity_lines": [ 298.266675, 304.947369, 306.688679, 298.43022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 302.850006, "volume": 730, "typical_volume": 580.1, "trend": 290.546666, "fair_value": 186.550614, "relative_strength": -2.818383, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.51808, "energy": 16.319512, "activity_lines": [ 298.893341, 303.51151, 307.140158, 299.306704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 307.950012, "volume": 706, "typical_volume": 596.1, "trend": 291.339355, "fair_value": 187.774979, "relative_strength": -4.436476, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.980666, "energy": 14.770468, "activity_lines": [ 300.943343, 303.496915, 307.892828, 300.4295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }