{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0de89f74-c15b-43c8-865c-94015d283654", "symbol": "MTEDUCARE", "name": "MT Educare Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.282, "architecture_energy": 29.605, "architecture_maturity": 53.049, "architecture_confidence": 87.681, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.17, "rotation_up": 38.15, "upward_expansion": 65.47, "deceleration": 84.81, "rotation_down": 25.15, "downward_expansion": 15.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.961333, 1.982909, 1.867524, 1.759484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.99, "trend_reference": 1.647, "distance_from_trend": 0.208257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.761923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.279488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.03225, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.381944, "excess_performance": 0.425654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.208257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025742, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.279488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192261, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.130323, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.263786, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.381944, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.500919, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164428, "relative_activity": 1.359441, "balance": 1.500919, "dry_up": 1.34311, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123309, "annualized_volatility": 0.528308, "from_high_reference": -0.15678, "from_low_reference": 0.700855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.647, "fair_value_reference": 2.761923, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039106, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.068797, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.143791, "worst_return": -0.180516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.167598, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.149232, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00578, "worst_return": -0.22063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.393064, "worst_return": -0.352436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.142919, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.176576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080925, "worst_return": -0.366762, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026866, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084058, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146172, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140401, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013986, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2249, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.21608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.292135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.15, "volume": 99372, "typical_volume": 135660.35, "trend": 4.495, "fair_value": 8.066346, "relative_strength": -35.920846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.877293, "energy": 16.620252, 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"volume": 132992, "typical_volume": 127304.55, "trend": 1.624333, "fair_value": 2.789423, "relative_strength": 12.720491, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.038676, "energy": 31.329274, "activity_lines": [ 1.944667, 1.952, 1.807143, 1.711011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.02, "volume": 197426, "typical_volume": 130520.2, "trend": 1.634333, "fair_value": 2.776731, "relative_strength": 15.264953, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.478764, "energy": 28.168291, "activity_lines": [ 1.948667, 1.973091, 1.840048, 1.736538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.99, "volume": 164428, "typical_volume": 120952.7, "trend": 1.647, "fair_value": 2.761923, "relative_strength": 13.03225, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.281521, "energy": 29.605374, "activity_lines": [ 1.961333, 1.982909, 1.867524, 1.759484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }