{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0def1a46-8c9b-41bd-a651-4e6fa6cd125a", "symbol": "600370", "name": "Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.602, "architecture_energy": 45.536, "architecture_maturity": 73.889, "architecture_confidence": 77.477, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.99, "rotation_up": 27.84, "upward_expansion": 11.15, "deceleration": 59.57, "rotation_down": 45.14, "downward_expansion": 73.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.586667, 1.605818, 1.687381, 1.871806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.51, "trend_reference": 2.101, "distance_from_trend": -0.281295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.015897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.051673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.407843, "excess_performance": -0.364639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.281295, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.250954, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.072701, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168500771, "relative_activity": 0.570196, "balance": 1.072701, "dry_up": 0.586204, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154865, "annualized_volatility": 0.798654, "from_high_reference": -0.608808, "from_low_reference": 0.217742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.101, "fair_value_reference": 2.015897, "structural_low": 1.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.015626, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.009054, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.433333, "worst_return": -0.247475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.045193, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.027838, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.676471, "worst_return": -0.262376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005278, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035577, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.530201, "worst_return": -0.381743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116751, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.19209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": 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50.181914, "activity_lines": [ 1.578, 1.571455, 1.875381, 2.044194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.82, "volume": 351695879, "typical_volume": 417428435.05, "trend": 2.187667, "fair_value": 2.044615, "relative_strength": -17.314615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.55483, "energy": 37.597335, "activity_lines": [ 1.672, 1.596364, 1.849048, 2.019419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.67, "volume": 261893715, "typical_volume": 407892404.95, "trend": 2.172, "fair_value": 2.038141, "relative_strength": -19.080596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.262867, "energy": 34.437448, "activity_lines": [ 1.686, 1.607091, 1.81119, 1.986022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.59, "volume": 153972325, "typical_volume": 396138932.35, "trend": 2.152333, "fair_value": 2.031026, "relative_strength": -23.644543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.317728, "energy": 31.877804, "activity_lines": [ 1.659333, 1.612545, 1.768667, 1.948473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.58, "volume": 108558577, "typical_volume": 374507935.75, "trend": 2.126, "fair_value": 2.023718, "relative_strength": -24.104227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.23036, "energy": 32.992528, "activity_lines": [ 1.637333, 1.618, 1.728619, 1.911548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.51, "volume": 168500771, "typical_volume": 295513763.75, "trend": 2.101, "fair_value": 2.015897, "relative_strength": -29.051673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.601787, "energy": 45.535697, "activity_lines": [ 1.586667, 1.605818, 1.687381, 1.871806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }