{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0df5e4d0-2d84-4486-887c-3ce2ad1c4de1", "symbol": "PRUDMOULI", "name": "Prudential Sugar Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.049, "architecture_energy": 70.488, "architecture_maturity": 17.928, "architecture_confidence": 86.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.15, "rotation_up": 9.56, "upward_expansion": 15.63, "deceleration": 37.27, "rotation_down": 74.29, "downward_expansion": 91.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.43, 14.084545, 14.779762, 15.052086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.44, "trend_reference": 15.795, "distance_from_trend": -0.149098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.815435, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.590437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.099152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25167, "excess_performance": -0.207961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154489, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.590437, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.350992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001606, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25167, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418488, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39147, "relative_activity": 0.726473, "balance": 0.418488, "dry_up": 0.653555, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105598, "annualized_volatility": 0.676338, "from_high_reference": -0.68369, "from_low_reference": 0.193606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.795, "fair_value_reference": 32.815435, "structural_low": 11.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.105164, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.100832, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.34895, "worst_return": -0.240798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.24214, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.251108, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.350211, "worst_return": -0.457169, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.346522, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.316274, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.267064, "worst_return": -0.425979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.32342, "energy": 50.558893, "activity_lines": [ 14.67, 14.996909, 15.298714, 15.632237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.92, "volume": 33079, "typical_volume": 68655.85, "trend": 16.228667, "fair_value": 33.100588, "relative_strength": -38.637466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.039328, "energy": 70.482316, "activity_lines": [ 13.951333, 14.596545, 15.083857, 15.399613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.41, "volume": 32579, "typical_volume": 66993.55, "trend": 16.008, "fair_value": 32.956861, "relative_strength": -36.345167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.800994, "energy": 71.211514, "activity_lines": [ 13.599333, 14.320182, 14.926381, 15.217763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.44, "volume": 39147, "typical_volume": 53886.4, "trend": 15.795, "fair_value": 32.815435, "relative_strength": -35.099152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.048678, "energy": 70.487741, "activity_lines": [ 13.43, 14.084545, 14.779762, 15.052086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }