{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0df81a7f-260c-4f2a-af6b-f45f56c474b8", "symbol": "600787", "name": "CMST Development Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.628, "architecture_energy": 26.301, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.258, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.75, "rotation_up": 28.14, "upward_expansion": 22.72, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 21.1, "downward_expansion": 56.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.586, 4.500309, 4.611633, 4.835061 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.59, "trend_reference": 5.135768, "distance_from_trend": -0.106268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.402633, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.622356, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22597, "excess_performance": -0.182766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078604, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08591, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03903, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93957383, "relative_activity": 1.164769, "balance": 0.479012, "dry_up": 1.28834, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051524, "annualized_volatility": 0.202512, "from_high_reference": -0.291667, "from_low_reference": 0.108696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.135768, "fair_value_reference": 5.402633, "structural_low": 4.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.001764, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.009172, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.162471, "worst_return": -0.119672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016393, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.0, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.567568, "worst_return": -0.186567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078212, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021236, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.244856, "worst_return": -0.268078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -64.360914, "energy": 64.388404, "activity_lines": [ 4.406517, 4.435643, 4.701771, 4.952177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.5, "volume": 113114895, "typical_volume": 85804086.0, "trend": 5.203102, "fair_value": 5.412095, "relative_strength": -15.672896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.699019, "energy": 53.156256, "activity_lines": [ 4.451333, 4.435071, 4.655995, 4.9043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.71, "volume": 88407635, "typical_volume": 82483088.1, "trend": 5.170102, "fair_value": 5.407625, "relative_strength": -11.59804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.206201, "energy": 36.313361, "activity_lines": [ 4.557333, 4.478786, 4.636695, 4.872487 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.59, "volume": 93957383, "typical_volume": 80666135.7, "trend": 5.135768, "fair_value": 5.402633, "relative_strength": -15.622356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.628375, "energy": 26.301121, "activity_lines": [ 4.586, 4.500309, 4.611633, 4.835061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }