{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e039d81-5e92-4719-842d-804cb9e29539", "symbol": "1183", "name": "SHL Finance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.05, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.315, "architecture_energy": 27.485, "architecture_maturity": 15.624, "architecture_confidence": 88.847, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.87, "rotation_up": 21.31, "upward_expansion": 8.24, "deceleration": 40.22, "rotation_down": 46.97, "downward_expansion": 74.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.660667, 14.75733, 14.804461, 14.839823 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.71, "trend_reference": 15.014836, "distance_from_trend": -0.020302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.474968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.825285, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041694, "excess_performance": -0.009864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041694, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.10972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175315, "relative_activity": 0.397481, "balance": 2.10972, "dry_up": 1.023109, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043403, "annualized_volatility": 0.237035, "from_high_reference": -0.390385, "from_low_reference": 0.106015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.014836, "fair_value_reference": 17.474968, "structural_low": 13.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016352, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.028084, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.107102, "worst_return": -0.105184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.091202, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067925, "worst_return": -0.221943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037736, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.06157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105687, "worst_return": -0.248941, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.21404, "energy": 8.775779, "activity_lines": [ 14.946209, 14.888753, 14.849725, 15.015426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.7, "volume": 124551, "typical_volume": 458621.7, "trend": 15.330502, "fair_value": 17.587597, "relative_strength": -15.828398, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.703193, "energy": 10.413788, "activity_lines": [ 14.885869, 14.850039, 14.832034, 14.968124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.05, "volume": 1190000, "typical_volume": 487274.65, "trend": 15.237836, "fair_value": 17.560353, "relative_strength": -12.333921, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.603002, "energy": 6.591999, "activity_lines": [ 14.941612, 14.886064, 14.855343, 14.950027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.64, "volume": 128830, "typical_volume": 433612.7, "trend": 15.164502, "fair_value": 17.531635, "relative_strength": -14.535106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.411504, "energy": 15.866031, "activity_lines": [ 14.84, 14.847532, 14.845557, 14.911457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.41, "volume": 310887, "typical_volume": 435193.8, "trend": 15.065836, "fair_value": 17.502853, "relative_strength": -13.38104, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.92354, "energy": 29.353978, "activity_lines": [ 14.679333, 14.772337, 14.811818, 14.86278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.71, "volume": 175315, "typical_volume": 441065.35, "trend": 15.014836, "fair_value": 17.474968, "relative_strength": -12.825285, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.31511, "energy": 27.485308, "activity_lines": [ 14.660667, 14.75733, 14.804461, 14.839823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }