{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e0af50c-d1f8-4a0e-bf14-2ff946a4ccad", "symbol": "JPA", "name": "UBS MSCI Japan Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF JPY acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.983, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.515, "architecture_energy": 25.628, "architecture_maturity": 60.891, "architecture_confidence": 72.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.07, "rotation_up": 30.4, "upward_expansion": 59.1, "deceleration": 85.43, "rotation_down": 35.02, "downward_expansion": 20.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.0968, 16.213527, 16.100695, 15.907781 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.41, "trend_reference": 15.703067, "distance_from_trend": 0.045019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.887205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.536807, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071848, "excess_performance": -0.099043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045019, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181663, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071848, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.400124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19940, "relative_activity": 1.309146, "balance": 0.400124, "dry_up": 0.938282, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032785, "annualized_volatility": 0.222075, "from_high_reference": -0.027152, "from_low_reference": 0.205554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.703067, "fair_value_reference": 13.887205, "structural_low": 14.412, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.006956, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.087522, "worst_return": -0.033737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005125, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.016232, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.088895, "worst_return": -0.036804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049148, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.037179, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.143593, "worst_return": -0.04351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000146, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054102, "active": false }, { 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"volume": 76945, "typical_volume": 14749.8, "trend": 15.564267, "fair_value": 13.7975, "relative_strength": -4.958281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.724296, "energy": 77.314186, "activity_lines": [ 16.583601, 16.365419, 16.000657, 15.811183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.782, "volume": 2365, "typical_volume": 13191.4, "trend": 15.598667, "fair_value": 13.818615, "relative_strength": -8.336474, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.9835, "energy": 41.436694, "activity_lines": [ 16.356667, 16.284218, 16.006905, 15.82523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.892, "volume": 4451, "typical_volume": 13149.85, "trend": 15.637467, "fair_value": 13.840436, "relative_strength": -7.442308, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.209422, "energy": 25.686495, "activity_lines": [ 16.156134, 16.230946, 16.025343, 15.844155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.888, "volume": 30409, "typical_volume": 14480.75, "trend": 15.674333, "fair_value": 13.861436, "relative_strength": -7.969835, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.242411, "energy": 20.940865, "activity_lines": [ 16.019333, 16.174255, 16.040248, 15.860318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.41, "volume": 19940, "typical_volume": 15231.3, "trend": 15.703067, "fair_value": 13.887205, "relative_strength": -7.536807, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.514683, "energy": 25.628327, "activity_lines": [ 16.0968, 16.213527, 16.100695, 15.907781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }