{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e0c5f54-fcbd-4b86-b780-f36dbdedf15f", "symbol": "NKT", "name": "Nakornthon Hospital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.418, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.943, "architecture_energy": 77.046, "architecture_maturity": 11.643, "architecture_confidence": 93.297, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.63, "rotation_up": 13.14, "upward_expansion": 18.45, "deceleration": 38.32, "rotation_down": 72.45, "downward_expansion": 94.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.694667, 3.725455, 3.800733, 3.841622 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.7, "trend_reference": 3.87652, "distance_from_trend": -0.045536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.09204, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.398855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042104, "excess_performance": -0.234429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002734, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095805, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183989, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.303615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1702300, "relative_activity": 2.36155, "balance": 0.303615, "dry_up": 1.28593, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02079, "annualized_volatility": 0.097793, "from_high_reference": -0.143828, "from_low_reference": 0.010929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.87652, "fair_value_reference": 4.09204, "structural_low": 3.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.673513, "energy": 47.788001, "activity_lines": [ 3.845333, 3.885455, 3.914295, 3.91334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.74, "volume": 793900, "typical_volume": 909700.0, "trend": 3.893457, "fair_value": 4.116486, "relative_strength": -20.492308, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.897541, "energy": 67.570135, "activity_lines": [ 3.805333, 3.854893, 3.895625, 3.90334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.7, "volume": 1772200, "typical_volume": 802500.0, "trend": 3.891223, "fair_value": 4.111407, "relative_strength": -21.121052, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.841161, "energy": 81.069128, "activity_lines": [ 3.764, 3.819636, 3.873911, 3.890859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.7, "volume": 1356100, "typical_volume": 776785.0, "trend": 3.887714, "fair_value": 4.106451, "relative_strength": -21.344903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.813834, "energy": 80.807194, "activity_lines": [ 3.734667, 3.788727, 3.853792, 3.878522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.7, "volume": 423700, "typical_volume": 676715.0, "trend": 3.884205, "fair_value": 4.101612, "relative_strength": -20.97963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.582144, "energy": 81.696654, "activity_lines": [ 3.714667, 3.764, 3.835266, 3.866412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.68, "volume": 225700, "typical_volume": 675085.0, "trend": 3.880029, "fair_value": 4.096652, "relative_strength": -19.927745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.36002, "energy": 82.295684, "activity_lines": [ 3.696, 3.740364, 3.816248, 3.853237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.7, "volume": 1702300, "typical_volume": 720840.0, "trend": 3.87652, "fair_value": 4.09204, "relative_strength": -18.398855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.943121, "energy": 77.045925, "activity_lines": [ 3.694667, 3.725455, 3.800733, 3.841622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }