{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e0fa5e4-8fa5-41b7-a814-a3300ef79e68", "symbol": "EMEH", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Energy & Metals Enhanced Roll UCITS ETF RH EUR Cap", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.15, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.148, "architecture_energy": 13.957, "architecture_maturity": 34.026, "architecture_confidence": 68.22, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.05, "rotation_up": 37.53, "upward_expansion": 24.95, "deceleration": 52.92, "rotation_down": 23.34, "downward_expansion": 29.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.6232, 15.477118, 15.795252, 15.85352 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.7346, "trend_reference": 15.739813, "distance_from_trend": -0.000331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.147408, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295305, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.684711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075833, "excess_performance": 0.022522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295305, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121754, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016847, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075833, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.956539, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28655, "relative_activity": 0.456753, "balance": 0.956539, "dry_up": 0.537257, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033062, "annualized_volatility": 0.150411, "from_high_reference": -0.104972, "from_low_reference": 0.365234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.739813, "fair_value_reference": 12.147408, "structural_low": 14.2177, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03544, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.020966, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.068492, "worst_return": -0.020956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044419, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.035767, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.333083, "worst_return": -0.049833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.05205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175299, "worst_return": -0.094442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.31177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007285, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.8218, "volume": 2185, "typical_volume": 3751.8, "trend": 10.875577, "fair_value": 10.702824, "relative_strength": -8.984211, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.961885, "energy": 68.375602, "activity_lines": [ 15.100007, 15.577996, 15.95582, 15.834424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.4008, "volume": 36591, "typical_volume": 73159.9, "trend": 15.527223, "fair_value": 12.056751, "relative_strength": 5.070012, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.359772, "energy": 63.920292, "activity_lines": [ 15.147633, 15.477651, 15.892539, 15.831071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.7958, "volume": 49470, "typical_volume": 69712.95, "trend": 15.600607, "fair_value": 12.087224, "relative_strength": 6.898923, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.729173, "energy": 31.724227, "activity_lines": [ 15.36274, 15.471093, 15.86582, 15.848398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.6208, "volume": 20106, "typical_volume": 63517.65, "trend": 15.67541, "fair_value": 12.116796, "relative_strength": 3.698849, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.628488, "energy": 17.863586, "activity_lines": [ 15.499293, 15.452813, 15.823159, 15.849701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.7346, "volume": 28655, "typical_volume": 62736.3, "trend": 15.739813, "fair_value": 12.147408, "relative_strength": 1.684711, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.14766, "energy": 13.957484, "activity_lines": [ 15.6232, 15.477118, 15.795252, 15.85352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }