{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e17f5e1-e6bb-4414-bfab-48e3cb52cd14", "symbol": "NRDY", "name": "Nerdy Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.717, "architecture_energy": 42.939, "architecture_maturity": 24.697, "architecture_confidence": 77.507, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.04, "rotation_up": 16.22, "upward_expansion": 9.96, "deceleration": 39.15, "rotation_down": 63.91, "downward_expansion": 78.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.81454, 0.85218, 0.860923, 0.870652 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.7561, "trend_reference": 0.898743, "distance_from_trend": -0.158714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.755318, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.569252, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.496495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.272981, "excess_performance": -0.398606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.569252, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0026, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02745, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.452825, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2046593, "relative_activity": 0.754898, "balance": 1.452825, "dry_up": 0.647756, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159431, "annualized_volatility": 0.529161, "from_high_reference": -0.492516, "from_low_reference": 0.03053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.898743, "fair_value_reference": 1.755318, "structural_low": 0.7337, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.075472, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.086539, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.077206, "worst_return": -0.397727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.121795, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.186226, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.488971, "worst_return": -0.386364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.309659, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.31647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.132911, "worst_return": -0.433022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.451713, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.642293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.479114, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241071, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113527, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.261128, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161994, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.44664, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.177215, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.204969, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.323543, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229099, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.31, "volume": 3362591, "typical_volume": 4377408.45, "trend": 3.678333, "fair_value": 5.873951, "relative_strength": 28.732433, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"close": 0.9256, "volume": 2355746, "typical_volume": 3335869.7, "trend": 0.93608, "fair_value": 1.856216, "relative_strength": -23.058107, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.216981, "energy": 10.786536, "activity_lines": [ 0.922433, 0.895845, 0.88285, 0.897791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8308, "volume": 2682775, "typical_volume": 3195615.5, "trend": 0.923107, "fair_value": 1.834106, "relative_strength": -28.611204, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.244491, "energy": 11.708126, "activity_lines": [ 0.891507, 0.887655, 0.878199, 0.890998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8416, "volume": 1464121, "typical_volume": 2925797.05, "trend": 0.913827, "fair_value": 1.808411, "relative_strength": -25.865928, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.936504, "energy": 14.219909, "activity_lines": [ 0.875247, 0.882002, 0.875213, 0.88574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8314, "volume": 831002, "typical_volume": 2809534.8, "trend": 0.90754, "fair_value": 1.779958, "relative_strength": -26.442047, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.887243, "energy": 22.292819, "activity_lines": [ 0.85652, 0.874124, 0.871443, 0.880422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7561, "volume": 2046593, "typical_volume": 2711085.4, "trend": 0.898743, "fair_value": 1.755318, "relative_strength": -34.496495, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.717386, "energy": 42.938876, "activity_lines": [ 0.81454, 0.85218, 0.860923, 0.870652 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }