{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e19c8b5-93d8-4907-8f5e-a76794f87c71", "symbol": "XNJP", "name": "Xtrackers Japan Net Zero Pathway Paris Aligned UCITS ETF 1C EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.197, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.686, "architecture_energy": 64.005, "architecture_maturity": 54.111, "architecture_confidence": 66.483, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 64.68, "upward_expansion": 83.28, "deceleration": 68.22, "rotation_down": 20.54, "downward_expansion": 9.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.675333, 41.367, 40.629428, 40.147473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.584999, "trend_reference": 39.659667, "distance_from_trend": 0.073761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.082821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.431815, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096421, "excess_performance": -0.074471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065209, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096421, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.741706, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4463, "relative_activity": 1.966599, "balance": 1.741706, "dry_up": 2.778708, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01968, "annualized_volatility": 0.144366, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.152347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.659667, "fair_value_reference": 36.082821, "structural_low": 37.025002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.005481, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.009059, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.048167, "worst_return": -0.077459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004239, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043956, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.049876, "worst_return": -0.037016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022309, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.095149, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.052915, "worst_return": -0.005673, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.256297, "energy": 85.296677, "activity_lines": [ 40.150333, 39.768818, 39.3245, 39.180893 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 40.66, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 887.4, "trend": 39.029667, "fair_value": 35.718942, "relative_strength": -7.707649, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.012288, "energy": 82.30153, "activity_lines": [ 40.384667, 39.980636, 39.466905, 39.290678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 41.255001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 887.4, "trend": 39.133333, "fair_value": 35.777532, "relative_strength": -8.842257, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.079795, "energy": 92.406683, "activity_lines": [ 40.728667, 40.272546, 39.65731, 39.434247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.02, "volume": 6041, "typical_volume": 1050.7, "trend": 39.2625, "fair_value": 35.841026, "relative_strength": -6.610132, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.985192, "energy": 95.983628, "activity_lines": [ 41.242334, 40.659091, 39.909072, 39.620484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.939999, "volume": 10997, "typical_volume": 1600.45, "trend": 39.3605, "fair_value": 35.897596, "relative_strength": -7.538424, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.729333, "energy": 82.914046, "activity_lines": [ 41.265, 40.788727, 40.047976, 39.72871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.814999, "volume": 624, "typical_volume": 1624.65, "trend": 39.450833, "fair_value": 35.951026, "relative_strength": -7.463499, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.690381, "energy": 63.945811, "activity_lines": [ 41.137666, 40.868545, 40.171262, 39.822548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.465, "volume": 9140, "typical_volume": 2074.65, "trend": 39.562833, "fair_value": 36.014615, "relative_strength": -6.417277, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.786357, "energy": 57.449058, "activity_lines": [ 41.246666, 41.035363, 40.351976, 39.952495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.584999, "volume": 4463, "typical_volume": 2269.4, "trend": 39.659667, "fair_value": 36.082821, "relative_strength": -6.431815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.686187, "energy": 64.004715, "activity_lines": [ 41.675333, 41.367, 40.629428, 40.147473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }