{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0e1bdcba-1394-45f5-80ba-cd460908e924",
    "symbol": "SPXE",
    "name": "PROSHARES TRUST S&P 500 EX ENERGY ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 90.37,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 79.925,
    "architecture_energy": 53.656,
    "architecture_maturity": 56.946,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.409,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.97,
        "rotation_up": 53.96,
        "upward_expansion": 80.87,
        "deceleration": 65.16,
        "rotation_down": 26.39,
        "downward_expansion": 7.54
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        81.247447,
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        79.965054,
        78.340775
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 83.3896,
    "trend_reference": 76.551255,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.08933,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 62.702119,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329933,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.265012,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.122728,
    "excess_performance": -0.002897,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08933,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032314,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.329933,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002803,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00265,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001403,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.122728,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.379631,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4536,
      "relative_activity": 0.803927,
      "balance": 2.379631,
      "dry_up": 1.055554,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.025232,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.149608,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002994,
      "from_low_reference": 0.235683
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 76.551255,
      "fair_value_reference": 62.702119,
      "structural_low": 67.4846,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.014678,
        "positive_rate": 0.675,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.675,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00032,
        "regime_survival": 0.775,
        "best_return": 0.063316,
        "worst_return": -0.12126,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
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        "regime_survival": 0.642857,
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        "worst_return": -0.049289,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.171267,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.109145,
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "fair_value": 59.320362,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 7665.25,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -0.433229,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 6690.75,
        "trend": 75.387343,
        "fair_value": 61.598472,
        "relative_strength": -0.165713,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 6716.75,
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        "fair_value": 61.822617,
        "relative_strength": -0.226499,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 6416.95,
        "trend": 75.881696,
        "fair_value": 62.036075,
        "relative_strength": -0.332594,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.193294,
        "energy": 48.403217,
        "activity_lines": [
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          77.370015
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 79.4218,
        "volume": 3619,
        "typical_volume": 5430.0,
        "trend": 76.043661,
        "fair_value": 62.242129,
        "relative_strength": -0.627298,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.762472,
        "energy": 41.395632,
        "activity_lines": [
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          79.098939,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 80.43,
        "volume": 13628,
        "typical_volume": 5679.7,
        "trend": 76.26927,
        "fair_value": 62.461896,
        "relative_strength": -0.441265,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.43242,
        "energy": 42.11008,
        "activity_lines": [
          80.246933,
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          79.413942,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 83.3896,
        "volume": 4536,
        "typical_volume": 5642.3,
        "trend": 76.551255,
        "fair_value": 62.702119,
        "relative_strength": -0.265012,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.92535,
        "energy": 53.655929,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}