{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e21f6f1-ec66-423a-ab04-15687e044018", "symbol": "00651R", "name": "Fuh Hwa Daily Hang Seng Inversed ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.246, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.79, "architecture_energy": 27.495, "architecture_maturity": 59.955, "architecture_confidence": 59.194, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.32, "rotation_up": 14.83, "upward_expansion": 23.88, "deceleration": 75.97, "rotation_down": 62.55, "downward_expansion": 34.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.246667, 5.382545, 5.365286, 5.336731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.17, "trend_reference": 5.283333, "distance_from_trend": -0.021451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.19359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281305, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.225562, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.040241, "excess_performance": -0.33907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281305, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033426, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093473, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1732000, "relative_activity": 1.185494, "balance": 0.762168, "dry_up": 1.465338, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04047, "annualized_volatility": 0.180853, "from_high_reference": -0.123729, "from_low_reference": 0.059426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.283333, "fair_value_reference": 7.19359, "structural_low": 4.97, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.039276, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.014815, "worst_return": -0.063736, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051028, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.239424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.048352, "worst_return": -0.053704, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.040751, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.450828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016667, "worst_return": -0.064835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073107, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.232489, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011173, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"up", "direction": 65.481113, "energy": 77.952258, "activity_lines": [ 5.620667, 5.509818, 5.401143, 5.343118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.43, "volume": 2086500, "typical_volume": 1573934.5, "trend": 5.29, "fair_value": 7.255321, "relative_strength": -26.007558, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.042458, "energy": 60.218623, "activity_lines": [ 5.565333, 5.514, 5.409048, 5.352516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.32, "volume": 2116409, "typical_volume": 1433753.95, "trend": 5.29, "fair_value": 7.235513, "relative_strength": -28.195382, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.026147, "energy": 21.434536, "activity_lines": [ 5.47, 5.492364, 5.404952, 5.354452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.13, "volume": 2628490, "typical_volume": 1440393.45, "trend": 5.284667, "fair_value": 7.213333, "relative_strength": -28.987867, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.346378, "energy": 17.439761, "activity_lines": [ 5.327333, 5.433091, 5.382762, 5.344129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.17, "volume": 1732000, "typical_volume": 1460993.95, "trend": 5.283333, "fair_value": 7.19359, "relative_strength": -29.225562, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.790209, "energy": 27.494653, "activity_lines": [ 5.246667, 5.382545, 5.365286, 5.336731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }