{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e25c175-a814-42d8-b357-ce614ab9cc0c", "symbol": "002981", "name": "Risuntek Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.407, "architecture_energy": 21.83, "architecture_maturity": 58.67, "architecture_confidence": 79.375, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.76, "rotation_up": 25.05, "upward_expansion": 14.19, "deceleration": 46.75, "rotation_down": 31.29, "downward_expansion": 61.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.458, 22.047273, 23.135355, 23.907879 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.35, "trend_reference": 25.320345, "distance_from_trend": -0.077817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.637218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.500733, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205285, "excess_performance": -0.212684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080767, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084121, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205285, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.095969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10510341, "relative_activity": 0.721672, "balance": 1.095969, "dry_up": 1.074422, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117892, "annualized_volatility": 0.553435, "from_high_reference": -0.429895, "from_low_reference": 0.268332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.320345, "fair_value_reference": 25.637218, "structural_low": 18.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004892, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01182, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.16157, "worst_return": -0.316921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.102283, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.065935, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.212015, "worst_return": -0.374418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.177987, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.14914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.442986, "worst_return": -0.273733, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030812, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", 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"relative_strength": -21.307393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.210403, "energy": 45.606934, "activity_lines": [ 21.095334, 22.030418, 23.238352, 24.221778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.950001, "volume": 11252169, "typical_volume": 14639620.1, "trend": 25.488277, "fair_value": 25.647715, "relative_strength": -16.204162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.041287, "energy": 35.893463, "activity_lines": [ 21.860001, 21.974364, 23.162453, 24.045833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.35, "volume": 10510341, "typical_volume": 14563865.4, "trend": 25.320345, "fair_value": 25.637218, "relative_strength": -18.500733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.40663, "energy": 21.829711, "activity_lines": [ 22.458, 22.047273, 23.135355, 23.907879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }