{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e2686c7-a883-4813-8d88-19e76bb68491", "symbol": "VGM", "name": "Invesco Trust for Investment Grade Municipals", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.96, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.369, "architecture_energy": 21.203, "architecture_maturity": 40.207, "architecture_confidence": 63.622, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.58, "rotation_up": 34.99, "upward_expansion": 65.71, "deceleration": 81.93, "rotation_down": 32.44, "downward_expansion": 18.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.28439, 10.323228, 10.252121, 10.194279 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.4, "trend_reference": 10.140517, "distance_from_trend": 0.025589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.999491, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.448779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035586, "excess_performance": -0.090039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025589, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014871, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.155621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024262, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731473, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 596800, "relative_activity": 0.67823, "balance": 0.731473, "dry_up": 0.845442, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023512, "annualized_volatility": 0.146666, "from_high_reference": -0.022556, "from_low_reference": 0.167611 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.140517, "fair_value_reference": 8.999491, "structural_low": 9.391901, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.018954, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.02727, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.05399, "worst_return": -0.057877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00829, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.053039, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.10302, "worst_return": -0.009578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016291, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01509, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092456, "worst_return": -0.020374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008312, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060103, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.332902, "energy": 72.598218, "activity_lines": [ 10.442043, 10.312402, 10.195244, 10.153832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.48, "volume": 931866, "typical_volume": 892095.5, "trend": 10.121766, "fair_value": 8.954856, "relative_strength": -2.183555, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.983869, "energy": 70.254346, "activity_lines": [ 10.477396, 10.35574, 10.229487, 10.178142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.13, "volume": 799797, "typical_volume": 886204.6, "trend": 10.128026, "fair_value": 8.968433, "relative_strength": -4.866058, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.377276, "energy": 44.996456, "activity_lines": [ 10.369723, 10.332352, 10.229349, 10.178673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.1, "volume": 647281, "typical_volume": 888301.4, "trend": 10.130075, "fair_value": 8.982922, "relative_strength": -6.056752, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.093815, "energy": 16.914949, "activity_lines": [ 10.26717, 10.301453, 10.226463, 10.176865 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.4, "volume": 596800, "typical_volume": 879937.3, "trend": 10.140517, "fair_value": 8.999491, "relative_strength": -6.448779, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.368884, "energy": 21.202597, "activity_lines": [ 10.28439, 10.323228, 10.252121, 10.194279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }