{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e2e7515-2d99-4023-8cfe-536f5aaaec9c", "symbol": "ATKR", "name": "Atkore International Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.717, "architecture_energy": 47.651, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.35, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.08, "rotation_up": 57.15, "upward_expansion": 74.4, "deceleration": 59.82, "rotation_down": 20.57, "downward_expansion": 10.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.624, 78.076182, 77.353723, 74.511475 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 93.71, "trend_reference": 71.568657, "distance_from_trend": 0.309372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 95.249837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016166, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.803318, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.397052, "excess_performance": 0.271427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.309372, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016166, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245729, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.238033, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232164, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.397052, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.905742, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18802044, "relative_activity": 6.43922, "balance": 1.905742, "dry_up": 2.078257, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086941, "annualized_volatility": 0.52075, "from_high_reference": -0.001279, "from_low_reference": 0.788006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.568657, "fair_value_reference": 95.249837, "structural_low": 53.503885, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.052574, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": 0.028084, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.297204, "worst_return": -0.169564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025654, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.017919, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.299721, "worst_return": -0.384541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.096239, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028123, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.51313, "worst_return": -0.38657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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72.182315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 73.42, "volume": 1062987, "typical_volume": 2027807.95, "trend": 69.955705, "fair_value": 96.50241, "relative_strength": 0.755328, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.235552, "energy": 23.18239, "activity_lines": [ 73.368, 76.009453, 74.807556, 72.427064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.63, "volume": 1769582, "typical_volume": 2042058.65, "trend": 70.365596, "fair_value": 96.024925, "relative_strength": 6.200312, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.409721, "energy": 22.823665, "activity_lines": [ 73.986667, 75.846909, 75.306896, 72.857663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.96, "volume": 2638814, "typical_volume": 2082739.55, "trend": 70.670323, "fair_value": 95.562196, "relative_strength": 0.478878, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.079137, "energy": 11.875437, "activity_lines": [ 73.684667, 74.968, 75.382898, 73.025044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.71, "volume": 18802044, "typical_volume": 2919925.5, "trend": 71.568657, "fair_value": 95.249837, "relative_strength": 23.803318, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.717046, "energy": 47.650571, "activity_lines": [ 80.624, 78.076182, 77.353723, 74.511475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }