{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e3258f3-4c57-4feb-af6a-d3c2811fbaaf", "symbol": "000554", "name": "SINOPEC Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.523, "architecture_energy": 32.676, "architecture_maturity": 75.684, "architecture_confidence": 83.894, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.82, "rotation_up": 27.75, "upward_expansion": 18.78, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 30.95, "downward_expansion": 66.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.346308, 6.217739, 6.589132, 7.036537 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.46, "trend_reference": 7.45574, "distance_from_trend": -0.133553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.181592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.767957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236407, "excess_performance": -0.243806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020399, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045038, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256994, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.351895, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100648877, "relative_activity": 0.92907, "balance": 1.351895, "dry_up": 1.592871, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083518, "annualized_volatility": 0.418766, "from_high_reference": -0.458961, "from_low_reference": 0.156502 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.45574, "fair_value_reference": 6.181592, "structural_low": 5.585808, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.012599, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.159357, "worst_return": -0.061186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10609, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.092109, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.318885, "worst_return": -0.017071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00483, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046428, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.181575, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.852269, "volume": 119290771, "typical_volume": 137640624.3, "trend": 7.464502, "fair_value": 6.161785, "relative_strength": -26.575911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.538504, "energy": 88.932099, "activity_lines": [ 5.893501, 6.256688, 6.97585, 7.317288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.365452, "volume": 201235705, "typical_volume": 136873712.2, "trend": 7.46535, "fair_value": 6.167612, "relative_strength": -11.788254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.31037, "energy": 78.648511, "activity_lines": [ 6.014314, 6.208496, 6.855964, 7.246382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.375321, "volume": 244607184, "typical_volume": 127716436.65, "trend": 7.462528, "fair_value": 6.172881, "relative_strength": -11.562745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.247394, "energy": 57.332382, "activity_lines": [ 6.148054, 6.190727, 6.749373, 7.176057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.29637, "volume": 143749920, "typical_volume": 116418071.15, "trend": 7.456407, "fair_value": 6.176339, "relative_strength": -10.914742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.3339, "energy": 43.754184, "activity_lines": [ 6.239788, 6.179961, 6.654333, 7.100821 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.46, "volume": 100648877, "typical_volume": 108332984.85, "trend": 7.45574, "fair_value": 6.181592, "relative_strength": -12.767957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.523058, "energy": 32.675885, "activity_lines": [ 6.346308, 6.217739, 6.589132, 7.036537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }