{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0e39c475-c9dc-473c-8954-5d6b30ad6feb",
    "symbol": "QCLN",
    "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ CLEAN EDGE GREEN ENERGY INDEX FUND",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 65.526,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -22.393,
    "architecture_energy": 40.205,
    "architecture_maturity": 3.18,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.764,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.32,
        "rotation_up": 14.43,
        "upward_expansion": 20.62,
        "deceleration": 55.33,
        "rotation_down": 65.0,
        "downward_expansion": 47.95
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        51.273333,
        53.740727,
        56.407387,
        55.270713
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 52.82,
    "trend_reference": 53.611093,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.014756,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 39.580797,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334485,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.415704,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.063446,
    "excess_performance": -0.124008,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.014756,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070141,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.334485,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.202215,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054157,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.216958,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063446,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.087475,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1291169,
      "relative_activity": 1.241418,
      "balance": 1.087475,
      "dry_up": 1.170766,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.10977,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.34951,
      "from_high_reference": -0.236705,
      "from_low_reference": 0.505121
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 53.611093,
      "fair_value_reference": 39.580797,
      "structural_low": 43.32,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.036274,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.033683,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.085007,
        "worst_return": -0.012458,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.038462,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016085,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.038085,
        "worst_return": -0.038839,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.065479,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.073221,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.029343,
        "worst_return": -0.101615,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.087367,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.102952,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.087367,
        "worst_return": -0.087367,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.098992,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.084386,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-06-07",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.103789,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.005992,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.042401,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.069497,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.299456,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.026397,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.22577,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030242,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.13137,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 788425.1,
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 39.567119,
        "relative_strength": 4.353398,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 876831.6,
        "trend": 53.07636,
        "fair_value": 39.579653,
        "relative_strength": 0.313833,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "energy": 21.136435,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1110818,
        "typical_volume": 914917.9,
        "trend": 53.276062,
        "fair_value": 39.573232,
        "relative_strength": -2.08087,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.904064,
        "energy": 19.587398,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.544667,
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          55.836791
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 49.26,
        "volume": 1251267,
        "typical_volume": 953355.55,
        "trend": 53.372624,
        "fair_value": 39.549161,
        "relative_strength": -6.321391,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.780915,
        "energy": 34.091813,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.878667,
          56.310545,
          57.299979,
          55.57769
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 49.26,
        "volume": 1217491,
        "typical_volume": 993346.9,
        "trend": 53.46552,
        "fair_value": 39.545952,
        "relative_strength": -7.027217,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.972084,
        "energy": 38.705689,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.211333,
          54.573455,
          56.690785,
          55.31236
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 52.82,
        "volume": 1291169,
        "typical_volume": 1040076.15,
        "trend": 53.611093,
        "fair_value": 39.580797,
        "relative_strength": -5.415704,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.392629,
        "energy": 40.205074,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.273333,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}