{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e3cd3af-341a-4ddf-90f9-0737625da3eb", "symbol": "ITW", "name": "Illinois Tool Works Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.081, "architecture_energy": 93.154, "architecture_maturity": 12.708, "architecture_confidence": 62.385, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.55, "rotation_up": 87.53, "upward_expansion": 99.53, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 8.2, "downward_expansion": 21.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 249.266668, 243.000986, 233.682561, 231.994163 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 256.0, "trend_reference": 230.870615, "distance_from_trend": 0.108846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 220.998867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158377, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.784165, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037149, "excess_performance": -0.137098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037774, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173555, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.111111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18, "relative_activity": 1.945946, "balance": 2.111111, "dry_up": 0.972973, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031345, "annualized_volatility": 0.181947, "from_high_reference": -0.016897, "from_low_reference": 0.256259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 230.870615, "fair_value_reference": 220.998867, "structural_low": 210.547578, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.00706, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.017034, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.085738, "worst_return": -0.080975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054313, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.085442, "worst_return": -0.155434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04871, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.104853, "worst_return": -0.111448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 43.623773, "activity_lines": [ 230.970281, 224.570974, 224.271758, 225.794787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 236.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.45, "trend": 225.924202, "fair_value": 220.029691, "relative_strength": -13.193012, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.21475, "energy": 54.181714, "activity_lines": [ 233.969336, 227.34354, 225.174947, 226.499278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 244.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.45, "trend": 227.091182, "fair_value": 220.228502, "relative_strength": -7.939355, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.122826, "energy": 74.979883, "activity_lines": [ 238.614851, 231.350571, 226.949224, 227.717071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 248.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.45, "trend": 228.34512, "fair_value": 220.419201, "relative_strength": -7.660883, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.468525, "energy": 84.709923, "activity_lines": [ 242.652667, 235.406935, 229.021856, 229.066028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 247.300003, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 8.35, "trend": 229.568775, "fair_value": 220.662066, "relative_strength": -7.550747, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.974586, "energy": 86.780572, "activity_lines": [ 244.973335, 238.705633, 230.974028, 230.288923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 256.0, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 9.25, "trend": 230.870615, "fair_value": 220.998867, "relative_strength": -6.784165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.081037, "energy": 93.153669, "activity_lines": [ 249.266668, 243.000986, 233.682561, 231.994163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }