{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e419221-d3e6-4ec0-af6c-4fa39486257e", "symbol": "GFP", "name": "GreenFirst Forest Products Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.467, "architecture_energy": 62.662, "architecture_maturity": 13.395, "architecture_confidence": 83.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.29, "rotation_up": 10.74, "upward_expansion": 13.76, "deceleration": 37.58, "rotation_down": 69.61, "downward_expansion": 89.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.9, 1.974182, 2.037714, 2.095247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.98, "trend_reference": 2.181667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092437, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.852768, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.591985, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.494453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108108, "excess_performance": -0.228529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092437, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025701, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.591985, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044831, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10255, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108108, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.704142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21000, "relative_activity": 1.792574, "balance": 2.704142, "dry_up": 1.647461, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1115, "annualized_volatility": 0.552864, "from_high_reference": -0.390769, "from_low_reference": 197.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.181667, "fair_value_reference": 4.852768, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.035991, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.050508, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.636364, "worst_return": -0.303797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.048128, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.118344, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.690476, "worst_return": -0.432432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.233776, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.269178, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.58175, "worst_return": -0.604396, "sufficient": true }, { 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2.114545, 2.159095, 2.176344 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2.3, "volume": 3900, "typical_volume": 26600.0, "trend": 2.152667, "fair_value": 5.263442, "relative_strength": -15.848252, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.963516, "energy": 5.601003, "activity_lines": [ 2.179333, 2.150545, 2.165, 2.187355 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.2, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 19040.0, "trend": 2.171, "fair_value": 5.208819, "relative_strength": -17.98948, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.676035, "energy": 6.873915, "activity_lines": [ 2.196667, 2.162909, 2.161381, 2.190409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.15, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 15195.0, "trend": 2.182667, "fair_value": 5.150751, "relative_strength": -19.187656, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.36379, "energy": 7.02265, "activity_lines": [ 2.185333, 2.162545, 2.153095, 2.189054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.95, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 13275.0, "trend": 2.182667, "fair_value": 5.092651, "relative_strength": -25.485464, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.055446, "energy": 26.280532, "activity_lines": [ 2.111333, 2.126, 2.128524, 2.174043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.82, "volume": 11800, "typical_volume": 12270.0, "trend": 2.185333, "fair_value": 5.032468, "relative_strength": -29.132671, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.743699, "energy": 53.384118, "activity_lines": [ 2.003333, 2.071091, 2.094952, 2.150645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.83, "volume": 37500, "typical_volume": 12780.0, "trend": 2.181667, "fair_value": 4.971099, "relative_strength": -27.791945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.220621, "energy": 62.590289, "activity_lines": [ 1.918667, 2.022182, 2.066286, 2.12772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.88, "volume": 6900, "typical_volume": 11855.0, "trend": 2.181667, "fair_value": 4.911925, "relative_strength": -24.270831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.045724, "energy": 65.645058, "activity_lines": [ 1.882, 1.987818, 2.045952, 2.108258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.98, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 11715.0, "trend": 2.181667, "fair_value": 4.852768, "relative_strength": -21.494453, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.467397, "energy": 62.662239, "activity_lines": [ 1.9, 1.974182, 2.037714, 2.095247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }