{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e43146b-af7a-4bc3-8b1d-d110a1d5579d", "symbol": "688750", "name": "Hunan Xiangtou Goldsky Titanium Industry Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.616, "architecture_energy": 80.136, "architecture_maturity": 34.888, "architecture_confidence": 87.825, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.93, "rotation_up": 10.27, "upward_expansion": 19.09, "deceleration": 37.84, "rotation_down": 76.77, "downward_expansion": 94.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.30012, 15.045967, 16.23661, 17.015265 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.72, "trend_reference": 18.085867, "distance_from_trend": -0.186105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.84353, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.045995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.272727, "excess_performance": -0.229523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064347, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258196, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.399438, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17334621, "relative_activity": 1.077371, "balance": 0.399438, "dry_up": 0.952465, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095841, "annualized_volatility": 0.448134, "from_high_reference": -0.427905, "from_low_reference": 0.115299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.085867, "fair_value_reference": 19.84353, "structural_low": 13.198251, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.072394, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.048232, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.005241, "worst_return": -0.139548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 16.299148, 16.899353, 17.580756, 18.150609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.966984, "volume": 16155755, "typical_volume": 19229183.05, "trend": 18.635614, "fair_value": 20.040541, "relative_strength": -25.609121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.374763, "energy": 88.205303, "activity_lines": [ 15.340714, 16.267688, 17.174462, 17.83882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.607576, "volume": 15344468, "typical_volume": 17359679.35, "trend": 18.4562, "fair_value": 19.966599, "relative_strength": -27.777051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.441953, "energy": 90.638189, "activity_lines": [ 14.557344, 15.671639, 16.774525, 17.51443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.26, "volume": 12464812, "typical_volume": 16363494.4, "trend": 18.260867, "fair_value": 19.901752, "relative_strength": -23.986907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.157936, "energy": 85.781404, "activity_lines": [ 14.294277, 15.279894, 16.470163, 17.243708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.72, "volume": 17334621, "typical_volume": 16089741.4, "trend": 18.085867, "fair_value": 19.84353, "relative_strength": -23.045995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.616258, "energy": 80.136362, "activity_lines": [ 14.30012, 15.045967, 16.23661, 17.015265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }