{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e472818-ce66-406b-985f-005129fa70b2", "symbol": "KENH", "name": "Kentima Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.061, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.881, "architecture_energy": 25.457, "architecture_maturity": 18.251, "architecture_confidence": 89.368, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.99, "rotation_up": 20.33, "upward_expansion": 1.87, "deceleration": 52.1, "rotation_down": 46.13, "downward_expansion": 75.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.54, 2.552727, 2.590381, 2.624086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 2.68, "distance_from_trend": -0.067164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.340064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068347, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.932145, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074074, "excess_performance": -0.135568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036976, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.451267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47256, "relative_activity": 0.492875, "balance": 1.451267, "dry_up": 0.523478, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097846, "annualized_volatility": 0.458989, "from_high_reference": -0.293785, "from_low_reference": 0.22549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.68, "fair_value_reference": 2.340064, "structural_low": 2.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00623, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.366197, "worst_return": -0.26, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006479, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.502538, "worst_return": -0.233503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006623, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.067021, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.396648, "worst_return": -0.214912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"energy": 12.455383, "activity_lines": [ 2.669333, 2.654545, 2.667905, 2.693161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 113159.35, "trend": 2.706667, "fair_value": 2.355705, "relative_strength": -19.285755, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.607915, "energy": 27.923547, "activity_lines": [ 2.606667, 2.629455, 2.650381, 2.679398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.46, "volume": 39951, "typical_volume": 114322.4, "trend": 2.701333, "fair_value": 2.351731, "relative_strength": -18.322462, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.159424, "energy": 43.988942, "activity_lines": [ 2.545333, 2.6, 2.630286, 2.663484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.5, "volume": 55629, "typical_volume": 114395.05, "trend": 2.695333, "fair_value": 2.349167, "relative_strength": -15.550576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.497685, "energy": 48.316373, "activity_lines": [ 2.513333, 2.581091, 2.614667, 2.650495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.58, "volume": 62484, "typical_volume": 99815.95, "trend": 2.699333, "fair_value": 2.346474, "relative_strength": -13.620211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.756022, "energy": 45.235088, "activity_lines": [ 2.528, 2.574545, 2.606667, 2.643054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.6, "volume": 35392, "typical_volume": 98701.6, "trend": 2.694667, "fair_value": 2.343526, "relative_strength": -13.6067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.532673, "energy": 29.749472, "activity_lines": [ 2.549333, 2.572364, 2.602762, 2.636645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 47256, "typical_volume": 95878.35, "trend": 2.68, "fair_value": 2.340064, "relative_strength": -17.932145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.881262, "energy": 25.456877, "activity_lines": [ 2.54, 2.552727, 2.590381, 2.624086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }