{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e486cf7-f203-4067-9529-1246c21d8f01", "symbol": "DBX", "name": "Dropbox, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.273, "architecture_energy": 95.806, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.38, "rotation_up": 88.63, "upward_expansion": 99.84, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 8.54, "downward_expansion": 21.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.014667, 26.518818, 24.804781, 23.797535 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 30.360001, "trend_reference": 22.787933, "distance_from_trend": 0.332284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.304699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249141, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.665385, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.451937, "excess_performance": 0.27769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.332284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036654, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188049, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.451937, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 16.264706, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166, "relative_activity": 0.34188, "balance": 16.264706, "dry_up": 2.003398, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057148, "annualized_volatility": 0.430523, "from_high_reference": -0.002792, "from_low_reference": 0.638601 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.787933, "fair_value_reference": 24.304699, "structural_low": 18.528, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.006563, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.014334, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.186169, "worst_return": -0.284045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.060807, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.1087, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.215339, "worst_return": -0.188974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112739, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.208074, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.083469, "worst_return": -0.275411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050607, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118475, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.077221, "worst_return": -0.174521, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100716, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007576, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03436, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038743, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112715, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113977, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186169, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.665001, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 95.95, "trend": 21.662033, "fair_value": 21.465494, "relative_strength": 14.841029, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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21.914562, 21.94249 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 22.635, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 189.8, "trend": 22.2886, "fair_value": 24.228321, "relative_strength": -23.869984, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.537507, "energy": 26.285702, "activity_lines": [ 23.048333, 22.832091, 22.017071, 21.958914 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.895, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 189.8, "trend": 22.1981, "fair_value": 24.217647, "relative_strength": -20.923446, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.661637, "energy": 24.303, "activity_lines": [ 22.969333, 22.928273, 22.138795, 21.998037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.264999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 189.8, "trend": 22.183933, "fair_value": 24.221269, "relative_strength": -14.298651, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.070472, "energy": 51.584319, "activity_lines": [ 23.727666, 23.413091, 22.476781, 22.195901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.594999, "volume": 2384, "typical_volume": 301.65, "trend": 22.237767, "fair_value": 24.228929, "relative_strength": -11.656759, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.689356, "energy": 72.253723, "activity_lines": [ 24.423666, 23.865818, 22.824409, 22.41597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.75, "volume": 1390, "typical_volume": 371.15, "trend": 22.310433, "fair_value": 24.243224, "relative_strength": -5.541886, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.563891, "energy": 87.098814, "activity_lines": [ 25.356666, 24.440363, 23.261633, 22.707082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.775, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 371.15, "trend": 22.372267, "fair_value": 24.252808, "relative_strength": -9.794103, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.650989, "energy": 81.175889, "activity_lines": [ 25.739, 24.785636, 23.578333, 22.930602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0, "volume": 2335, "typical_volume": 487.9, "trend": 22.550267, "fair_value": 24.271782, "relative_strength": -1.685906, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.127624, "energy": 87.409276, "activity_lines": [ 26.653666, 25.477636, 24.092771, 23.293682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.360001, "volume": 166, "typical_volume": 485.55, "trend": 22.787933, "fair_value": 24.304699, "relative_strength": 3.665385, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.272802, "energy": 95.805515, "activity_lines": [ 28.014667, 26.518818, 24.804781, 23.797535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }