{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e4a6c14-fe95-4000-8d94-4a8cdd5c2ed6", "symbol": "AD", "name": "Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.953, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.979, "architecture_energy": 86.592, "architecture_maturity": 11.892, "architecture_confidence": 95.971, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.18, "rotation_up": 14.56, "upward_expansion": 21.36, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 71.46, "downward_expansion": 94.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.833131, 34.445973, 35.647039, 36.616649 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.439999, "trend_reference": 37.100014, "distance_from_trend": -0.098653, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.254182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.422142, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028149, "excess_performance": -0.202395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004244, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.012121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.012121, "dry_up": 0.018382, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034233, "annualized_volatility": 0.2804, "from_high_reference": -0.203999, "from_low_reference": 0.051738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.100014, "fair_value_reference": 31.254182, "structural_low": 33.055565, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000809, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005385, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.25204, "worst_return": -0.069262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026247, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000185, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.22969, "worst_return": -0.128791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.031696, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.069779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217061, "worst_return": -0.078466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.264117, "energy": 64.499745, "activity_lines": [ 36.273999, 37.230182, 38.421957, 37.89802 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 34.639999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 201.75, "trend": 36.999184, "fair_value": 30.961592, "relative_strength": -23.659728, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.364704, "energy": 73.3085, "activity_lines": [ 35.687332, 36.576545, 38.050588, 37.745932 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 35.450001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 172.95, "trend": 37.011628, "fair_value": 31.009636, "relative_strength": -19.907468, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.004808, "energy": 58.846617, "activity_lines": [ 35.518666, 36.185273, 37.74623, 37.645985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.311138, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 167.7, "trend": 37.044334, "fair_value": 31.054861, "relative_strength": -21.614328, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.188432, "energy": 55.542264, "activity_lines": [ 35.389712, 35.859843, 37.423688, 37.536276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.409637, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 167.7, "trend": 37.092442, "fair_value": 31.106475, "relative_strength": -19.927754, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.158067, "energy": 49.893609, "activity_lines": [ 35.351516, 35.664484, 37.128406, 37.430811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.734676, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 167.7, "trend": 37.146144, "fair_value": 31.153235, "relative_strength": -17.199497, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.258289, "energy": 40.353484, "activity_lines": [ 35.452356, 35.61132, 36.883877, 37.343214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.193459, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 138.9, "trend": 37.119396, "fair_value": 31.184079, "relative_strength": -23.699974, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.429914, "energy": 67.107535, "activity_lines": [ 34.747146, 35.127486, 36.421003, 37.088202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.4594, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 81.6, "trend": 37.089068, "fair_value": 31.221234, "relative_strength": -22.594547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.793879, "energy": 76.993683, "activity_lines": [ 34.227018, 34.758669, 36.014976, 36.852073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.439999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 81.6, "trend": 37.100014, "fair_value": 31.254182, "relative_strength": -24.422142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.979069, "energy": 86.59208, "activity_lines": [ 33.833131, 34.445973, 35.647039, 36.616649 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }