{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e4eaee3-93c2-403e-9d18-6befc51214d0", "symbol": "SAMD", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Advcd Mcr Dvcs ETP Securities", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.246, "architecture_energy": 90.245, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.92, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 63.31, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.300667, 27.892228, 33.635846, 45.578549 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 26.07, "trend_reference": 61.603261, "distance_from_trend": -0.576808, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 195.580173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.866704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.753377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.736027, "excess_performance": -0.852689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.576808, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268229, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.866704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.727534, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004173, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.736027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.006472, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.000201, "balance": 0.006472, "dry_up": 0.157192, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097438, "annualized_volatility": 0.699023, "from_high_reference": -0.848545, "from_low_reference": 0.099304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.603261, "fair_value_reference": 195.580173, "structural_low": 23.715, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.013414, "positive_rate": 0.290323, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.054423, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.430141, "worst_return": -0.430818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.164434, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.196473, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.430141, "worst_return": -0.522265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.339691, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.372411, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.449453, "worst_return": -0.745798, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 9937.45, "trend": 66.441095, "fair_value": 199.674628, "relative_strength": -75.135926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.258625, "energy": 94.540087, "activity_lines": [ 27.666334, 29.392046, 38.086988, 50.61612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.315001, "volume": 378, "typical_volume": 9956.35, "trend": 64.026261, "fair_value": 197.72998, "relative_strength": -73.205309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.513036, "energy": 89.823704, "activity_lines": [ 26.859501, 28.575182, 35.693096, 48.02734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.07, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 9946.45, "trend": 61.603261, "fair_value": 195.580173, "relative_strength": -72.753377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.246197, "energy": 90.245273, "activity_lines": [ 26.300667, 27.892228, 33.635846, 45.578549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }