{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e550de2-5aaf-4302-bd3b-85bf89ed3530", "symbol": "000716", "name": "Nanfang Black Sesame Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.963, "architecture_energy": 28.514, "architecture_maturity": 98.16, "architecture_confidence": 78.446, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.36, "rotation_up": 25.96, "upward_expansion": 15.67, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 33.62, "downward_expansion": 63.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.566, 4.483273, 4.740238, 4.951634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.7, "trend_reference": 5.295, "distance_from_trend": -0.11237, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.722533, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.178685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.35854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.264476, "excess_performance": -0.271875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099694, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.178685, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264476, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.460521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76622000, "relative_activity": 0.862584, "balance": 2.460521, "dry_up": 1.086324, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105237, "annualized_volatility": 0.378671, "from_high_reference": -0.34127, "from_low_reference": 0.160494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.295, "fair_value_reference": 5.722533, "structural_low": 4.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.012959, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.024402, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.239554, "worst_return": -0.193246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004484, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.032719, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.624096, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.029725, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.046176, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.808182, "worst_return": -0.35274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 50.493602, "activity_lines": [ 4.348667, 4.480909, 4.792095, 5.039419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.69, "volume": 102524922, "typical_volume": 87416757.8, "trend": 5.346, "fair_value": 5.743152, "relative_strength": -18.281168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.97153, "energy": 36.083372, "activity_lines": [ 4.476667, 4.471455, 4.763238, 4.993312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.7, "volume": 76622000, "typical_volume": 88828445.5, "trend": 5.295, "fair_value": 5.722533, "relative_strength": -21.35854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.963029, "energy": 28.513654, "activity_lines": [ 4.566, 4.483273, 4.740238, 4.951634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }