{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e568d10-9229-4da5-9312-2dc475380e52", "symbol": "9401", "name": "FALCOM Petrochemical ETF", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.928, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.23, "architecture_energy": 21.556, "architecture_maturity": 13.551, "architecture_confidence": 70.087, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.82, "rotation_up": 24.55, "upward_expansion": 9.05, "deceleration": 58.59, "rotation_down": 48.25, "downward_expansion": 48.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.449334, 23.623273, 24.454667, 24.510021 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.43, "trend_reference": 24.249, "distance_from_trend": -0.033775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.754936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.155826, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.917524, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004286, "excess_performance": 0.052562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.155826, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2323, "relative_activity": 0.209747, "balance": 0.455248, "dry_up": 0.384032, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080994, "annualized_volatility": 0.240113, "from_high_reference": -0.162616, "from_low_reference": 0.115714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.249, "fair_value_reference": 27.754936, "structural_low": 21.129999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.012869, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.018444, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.081839, "worst_return": -0.046824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018841, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00688, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121951, "worst_return": -0.015552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068525, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087217, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.068116, "worst_return": -0.073717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 23.700001, "volume": 3805, "typical_volume": 17889.3, "trend": 24.168333, "fair_value": 27.906538, "relative_strength": -1.422631, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.053641, "energy": 23.420499, "activity_lines": [ 23.629334, 24.001091, 24.777047, 24.624193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.17, "volume": 1939, "typical_volume": 14121.75, "trend": 24.201333, "fair_value": 27.829423, "relative_strength": -1.734167, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.40393, "energy": 21.357728, "activity_lines": [ 23.480667, 23.756727, 24.603714, 24.559785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.43, "volume": 2323, "typical_volume": 11075.25, "trend": 24.249, "fair_value": 27.754936, "relative_strength": -2.917524, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.230119, "energy": 21.556305, "activity_lines": [ 23.449334, 23.623273, 24.454667, 24.510021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }