{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e5afb9d-9e81-4078-b8ef-93d9c0bdd040", "symbol": "EBIT", "name": "Evolve Bitcoin ETF CAD", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.528, "architecture_energy": 33.029, "architecture_maturity": 26.798, "architecture_confidence": 68.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.58, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 15.98, "deceleration": 65.44, "rotation_down": 34.9, "downward_expansion": 61.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.242, 31.056091, 32.40731, 33.018893 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.5, "trend_reference": 34.267167, "distance_from_trend": -0.080753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.870321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145654, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.012071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060823, "excess_performance": -0.181244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116127, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145654, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.309024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44400, "relative_activity": 0.510873, "balance": 0.309024, "dry_up": 0.712519, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062063, "annualized_volatility": 0.363235, "from_high_reference": -0.492999, "from_low_reference": 0.094891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.267167, "fair_value_reference": 36.870321, "structural_low": 28.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007566, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001716, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.12518, "worst_return": -0.109672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058718, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010978, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.16211, "worst_return": -0.282638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.157309, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.041384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.417411, "worst_return": -0.401715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.535402, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.360002, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.469494, "worst_return": -0.40566, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117378, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072402, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.117837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07372, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026895, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.91, "volume": 157000, "typical_volume": 109640.0, "trend": 13.368, "fair_value": 16.84374, "relative_strength": 11.299191, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.738229, "energy": 10.826583, "activity_lines": [ 13.864, 14.150909, 14.024, 13.842452 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 12.92, "volume": 164700, "typical_volume": 115065.0, "trend": 13.420333, "fair_value": 16.814015, "relative_strength": 10.75949, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.613246, "energy": 19.049321, "activity_lines": [ 13.486667, 13.915818, 13.921048, 13.813548 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 12.76, "volume": 323900, "typical_volume": 127450.0, "trend": 13.460667, "fair_value": 16.783534, "relative_strength": 5.2155, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.113829, "energy": 34.738235, "activity_lines": [ 13.157333, 13.648909, 13.807619, 13.770946 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 12.9, "volume": 55300, "typical_volume": 126795.0, "trend": 13.533333, "fair_value": 16.754552, "relative_strength": 8.441214, "stage": 1, 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13.676333, "fair_value": 16.675766, "relative_strength": 13.574066, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.510838, "energy": 38.418228, "activity_lines": [ 13.114, 13.175636, 13.554, 13.655742 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 13.97, "volume": 239000, "typical_volume": 135455.0, "trend": 13.803, "fair_value": 16.656159, "relative_strength": 20.124363, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.568247, "energy": 14.512456, "activity_lines": [ 13.428667, 13.281636, 13.583238, 13.674688 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 13.31, "volume": 95200, "typical_volume": 136820.0, "trend": 13.79, "fair_value": 16.632086, "relative_strength": 12.661188, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.116382, "energy": 18.879486, "activity_lines": [ 13.442667, 13.272364, 13.546619, 13.642882 ] }, { "date": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.043386, "energy": 80.050134, "activity_lines": [ 30.495334, 32.133637, 33.552429, 34.367377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.49, "volume": 103600, "typical_volume": 96285.0, "trend": 35.829667, "fair_value": 36.437212, "relative_strength": -35.521124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.383803, "energy": 65.840892, "activity_lines": [ 30.864, 31.727273, 33.334191, 34.061248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.280001, "volume": 113600, "typical_volume": 97385.0, "trend": 35.452001, "fair_value": 36.54516, "relative_strength": -34.785487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.901223, "energy": 50.90735, "activity_lines": [ 31.016667, 31.386728, 33.100857, 33.767721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.459999, "volume": 47900, "typical_volume": 94080.0, "trend": 35.105334, "fair_value": 36.655609, "relative_strength": -33.506533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.311489, "energy": 38.464894, "activity_lines": [ 31.210667, 31.207091, 32.885, 33.510172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.674999, "volume": 41800, "typical_volume": 90740.0, "trend": 34.6845, "fair_value": 36.761154, "relative_strength": -33.785008, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.083364, "energy": 37.125051, "activity_lines": [ 31.127, 31.003636, 32.598524, 33.224344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.5, "volume": 44400, "typical_volume": 86910.0, "trend": 34.267167, "fair_value": 36.870321, "relative_strength": -33.012071, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.528256, "energy": 33.028518, "activity_lines": [ 31.242, 31.056091, 32.40731, 33.018893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }