{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e5dfe55-8c0f-49a5-8202-089152072982", "symbol": "2477", "name": "WellCell Holdings Co., Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.72, "architecture_energy": 91.151, "architecture_maturity": 75.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.3, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 55.93, "downward_expansion": 93.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2192, 0.220636, 0.32919, 0.944667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.205, "trend_reference": 1.7905, "distance_from_trend": -0.885507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.552527, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.867957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -90.712094, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.947503, "excess_performance": -0.926673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.885507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.867957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093225, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.907121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.947503, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.324751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 680351200, "relative_activity": 0.443129, "balance": 0.324751, "dry_up": 0.752562, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192871, "annualized_volatility": 3.011985, "from_high_reference": -0.98496, "from_low_reference": 0.205882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.7905, "fair_value_reference": 1.552527, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.260714, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.322468, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.057971, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.50989, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.513431, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.50989, "worst_return": -0.50989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135083, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.299501, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.603375, "energy": 85.510638, "activity_lines": [ 0.232667, 0.225582, 0.468367, 1.164843 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 0.223, "volume": 1471258600, "typical_volume": 1544933314.7, "trend": 1.882417, "fair_value": 1.562221, "relative_strength": -90.104425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.107512, "energy": 84.637422, "activity_lines": [ 0.229467, 0.223818, 0.394476, 1.052887 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 0.205, "volume": 680351200, "typical_volume": 1535333322.5, "trend": 1.7905, "fair_value": 1.552527, "relative_strength": -90.712094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.719753, "energy": 91.151222, "activity_lines": [ 0.2192, 0.220636, 0.32919, 0.944667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }