{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e60c5a6-7b72-42ab-8b2b-790c0324f52b", "symbol": "TORO", "name": "Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.585, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.884, "architecture_energy": 16.142, "architecture_maturity": 24.451, "architecture_confidence": 63.929, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.68, "rotation_up": 37.53, "upward_expansion": 38.07, "deceleration": 42.09, "rotation_down": 29.77, "downward_expansion": 14.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.541076, 0.539464, 0.536617, 0.53394 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.55, "trend_reference": 0.538723, "distance_from_trend": 0.020933, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.474797, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.237196, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062967, "excess_performance": -0.114202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020933, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15839, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018021, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 67.532867, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55978, "relative_activity": 0.071721, "balance": 67.532867, "dry_up": 0.320017, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037223, "annualized_volatility": 0.192177, "from_high_reference": -0.125573, "from_low_reference": 0.152168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.538723, "fair_value_reference": 0.474797, "structural_low": 0.477361, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.00405, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.020868, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.0807, "worst_return": -0.103735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01963, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025181, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.069158, "worst_return": -0.140598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054812, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015334, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.295213, "worst_return": -0.0944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059722, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094422, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007743, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013825, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.312022, "volume": 91417, "typical_volume": 456085.2, "trend": 0.319713, "fair_value": 0.303472, "relative_strength": -0.433891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"fair_value": 0.470248, "relative_strength": -12.28359, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.788866, "energy": 13.760165, "activity_lines": [ 0.534502, 0.537433, 0.531774, 0.533774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.536126, "volume": 553027, "typical_volume": 794657.4, "trend": 0.541465, "fair_value": 0.471744, "relative_strength": -12.132736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.185592, "energy": 16.43184, "activity_lines": [ 0.534127, 0.536978, 0.53288, 0.533321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.541, "volume": 209329, "typical_volume": 795930.55, "trend": 0.539944, "fair_value": 0.473271, "relative_strength": -11.92478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.160667, "energy": 7.728268, "activity_lines": [ 0.535801, 0.537435, 0.534402, 0.533291 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.55, "volume": 55978, "typical_volume": 780499.45, "trend": 0.538723, "fair_value": 0.474797, "relative_strength": -10.237196, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.883891, "energy": 16.141795, "activity_lines": [ 0.541076, 0.539464, 0.536617, 0.53394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }