{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e646fda-38c7-4485-ae5a-10b6a94297c0", "symbol": "EEM", "name": "Electricit\u00e9 et Eaux de Madagascar Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.867, "architecture_energy": 42.458, "architecture_maturity": 78.304, "architecture_confidence": 85.12, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.84, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 10.47, "deceleration": 56.76, "rotation_down": 44.52, "downward_expansion": 72.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.936, 1.94, 1.982857, 2.041204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.0, "trend_reference": 2.157333, "distance_from_trend": -0.07293, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.094231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.353636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.080833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21875, "excess_performance": -0.272061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.353636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.065269, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65, "relative_activity": 0.028149, "balance": 0.065269, "dry_up": 0.646017, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048077, "annualized_volatility": 0.498172, "from_high_reference": -0.390244, "from_low_reference": 0.052632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.157333, "fair_value_reference": 3.094231, "structural_low": 1.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.031056, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.017018, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.388889, "worst_return": -0.205128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.114185, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.111989, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.395833, "worst_return": -0.171429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.007824, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.104575, "worst_return": -0.270992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.173611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010101, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086364, "active": false 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.615517, "energy": 50.494711, "activity_lines": [ 1.913333, 1.947091, 2.000238, 2.07228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.91, "volume": 645, "typical_volume": 2308.6, "trend": 2.18, "fair_value": 3.099744, "relative_strength": -25.724146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.177442, "energy": 50.448753, "activity_lines": [ 1.91, 1.934545, 1.986095, 2.052817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.0, "volume": 65, "typical_volume": 2309.15, "trend": 2.157333, "fair_value": 3.094231, "relative_strength": -23.080833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.867251, "energy": 42.458262, "activity_lines": [ 1.936, 1.94, 1.982857, 2.041204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }