{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e6a5561-82bf-44dd-bf99-bf8192936e9d", "symbol": "BN", "name": "Danone S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.055, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.669, "architecture_energy": 24.427, "architecture_maturity": 54.324, "architecture_confidence": 68.373, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.9, "rotation_up": 36.97, "upward_expansion": 64.54, "deceleration": 85.35, "rotation_down": 23.51, "downward_expansion": 14.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.325333, 69.916728, 67.86216, 67.430509 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 68.220001, "trend_reference": 67.260801, "distance_from_trend": 0.014261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.48775, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091734, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.690899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020823, "excess_performance": -0.032488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025384, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06355, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031591, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020823, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64162, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6169293, "relative_activity": 1.066938, "balance": 0.64162, "dry_up": 1.131603, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049151, "annualized_volatility": 0.245347, "from_high_reference": -0.11904, "from_low_reference": 0.121302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.260801, "fair_value_reference": 62.48775, "structural_low": 60.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008984, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.046494, "worst_return": -0.054128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065346, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099402, "worst_return": -0.022234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029199, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049209, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079848, "worst_return": -0.090851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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0.84482, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.441104, "energy": 69.758194, "activity_lines": [ 71.290667, 68.308727, 66.683418, 66.913737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.980003, "volume": 4847744, "typical_volume": 5998865.95, "trend": 67.79996, "fair_value": 62.127708, "relative_strength": 1.548388, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.964592, "energy": 74.546533, "activity_lines": [ 72.272001, 69.551637, 67.303348, 67.243291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.0, "volume": 7681416, "typical_volume": 6012580.35, "trend": 67.657022, "fair_value": 62.248657, "relative_strength": -3.014496, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.034588, "energy": 65.3895, "activity_lines": [ 71.873334, 70.067637, 67.626186, 67.385229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.599998, "volume": 7474353, "typical_volume": 6011231.2, "trend": 67.46114, "fair_value": 62.367175, "relative_strength": -7.57533, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.744991, "energy": 30.403721, "activity_lines": [ 70.345333, 69.988, 67.710136, 67.38155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.220001, "volume": 6169293, "typical_volume": 5782239.45, "trend": 67.260801, "fair_value": 62.48775, "relative_strength": -8.690899, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.668633, "energy": 24.426517, "activity_lines": [ 69.325333, 69.916728, 67.86216, 67.430509 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }