{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e72674e-3a29-458e-9dfe-1b1b15b5a3bc", "symbol": "006205", "name": "Fubon SSE180 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.136, "architecture_energy": 23.437, "architecture_maturity": 25.326, "architecture_confidence": 55.428, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.41, "rotation_up": 43.47, "upward_expansion": 70.45, "deceleration": 83.64, "rotation_down": 24.25, "downward_expansion": 8.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.241333, 41.163273, 41.009191, 40.868538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.799999, "trend_reference": 40.795, "distance_from_trend": 0.024635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.533526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.329489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021755, "excess_performance": -0.357557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020317, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033506, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021755, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636083, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1840852, "relative_activity": 0.801221, "balance": 0.636083, "dry_up": 1.442093, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03007, "annualized_volatility": 0.115182, "from_high_reference": -0.022222, "from_low_reference": 0.298943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.795, "fair_value_reference": 33.533526, "structural_low": 38.299999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.008796, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.028003, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.039739, "worst_return": -0.068142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007359, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104493, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.043456, "worst_return": -0.114444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07974, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033818, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.134766, "worst_return": -0.106426, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.220817, "energy": 42.082589, "activity_lines": [ 41.272667, 41.15091, 40.859667, 40.766624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.720001, "volume": 7167477, "typical_volume": 2727690.35, "trend": 40.59, "fair_value": 33.330385, "relative_strength": -25.021733, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.333699, "energy": 7.094533, "activity_lines": [ 40.758667, 40.898728, 40.767905, 40.713463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.259998, "volume": 2239662, "typical_volume": 2537390.05, "trend": 40.669, "fair_value": 33.399551, "relative_strength": -23.382804, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.193285, "energy": 16.553663, "activity_lines": [ 40.84, 40.954, 40.830143, 40.756689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.330002, "volume": 2005175, "typical_volume": 2467615.9, "trend": 40.727334, "fair_value": 33.470577, "relative_strength": -21.7735, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.46905, "energy": 17.117618, "activity_lines": [ 40.963334, 41.021455, 40.897334, 40.799334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.799999, "volume": 1840852, "typical_volume": 2297557.35, "trend": 40.795, "fair_value": 33.533526, "relative_strength": -22.329489, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.136424, "energy": 23.437365, "activity_lines": [ 41.241333, 41.163273, 41.009191, 40.868538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }