{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e75ac13-ce5f-4182-b219-01ee633bd376", "symbol": "300456", "name": "Sai MicroElectronics Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.122, "architecture_energy": 81.44, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.697, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.25, "rotation_up": 9.25, "upward_expansion": 19.92, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 72.19, "downward_expansion": 90.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.582667, 33.877454, 39.135676, 42.038129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.959999, "trend_reference": 45.824653, "distance_from_trend": -0.302559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.80674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238436, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.526383, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.383432, "excess_performance": -0.390832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.302559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055931, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.859697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.474532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.383432, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.316982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132348641, "relative_activity": 0.689798, "balance": 1.316982, "dry_up": 0.754302, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19096, "annualized_volatility": 0.722253, "from_high_reference": -0.529608, "from_low_reference": 0.713017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.824653, "fair_value_reference": 25.80674, "structural_low": 26.219999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.035912, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.029979, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.37943, "worst_return": -0.302429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013663, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.037237, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.442748, "worst_return": -0.306189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.22415, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035843, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.421965, "worst_return": -0.29671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 198564750.15, "trend": 48.707796, "fair_value": 25.698343, "relative_strength": -23.610698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.418618, "energy": 69.178711, "activity_lines": [ 37.023333, 39.656908, 43.402465, 45.531414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.700001, "volume": 141378138, "typical_volume": 195930761.05, "trend": 47.568634, "fair_value": 25.737888, "relative_strength": -27.221634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.878037, "energy": 80.790207, "activity_lines": [ 33.710667, 37.170181, 41.799583, 44.240589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.08, "volume": 130370286, "typical_volume": 193395270.35, "trend": 46.609495, "fair_value": 25.765589, "relative_strength": -27.999488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.206087, "energy": 83.891045, "activity_lines": [ 31.132667, 34.999818, 40.236297, 42.983258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.959999, "volume": 132348641, "typical_volume": 191865916.2, "trend": 45.824653, "fair_value": 25.80674, "relative_strength": -22.526383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.121824, "energy": 81.440093, "activity_lines": [ 30.582667, 33.877454, 39.135676, 42.038129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }