{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e776e49-96b4-4fbc-9b9d-314da8d07915", "symbol": "600694", "name": "Dashang Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.704, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.593, "architecture_energy": 16.602, "architecture_maturity": 27.128, "architecture_confidence": 55.549, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.53, "rotation_up": 29.79, "upward_expansion": 19.38, "deceleration": 43.62, "rotation_down": 24.91, "downward_expansion": 53.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.424, 14.289091, 14.470444, 14.583833 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.43, "trend_reference": 14.826992, "distance_from_trend": -0.026775, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.293788, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.270191, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.068084, "excess_performance": -0.02488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009529, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076247, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07599, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.697311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23449483, "relative_activity": 1.469681, "balance": 0.697311, "dry_up": 1.339179, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054348, "annualized_volatility": 0.224564, "from_high_reference": -0.170618, "from_low_reference": 0.084962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.826992, "fair_value_reference": 14.293788, "structural_low": 13.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.012893, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 7e-05, "regime_survival": 0.315789, "best_return": 0.121978, "worst_return": -0.118838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.030047, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00393, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.17559, "worst_return": -0.109842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030913, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.001924, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.222358, "worst_return": -0.161304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030104, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.053498, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.76986, "worst_return": -0.145796, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022572, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149581, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050812, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.342608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118838, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069603, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062417, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 12.242164, "volume": 16507343, "typical_volume": 13555568.75, "trend": 11.518924, "fair_value": 11.328821, "relative_strength": 7.857995, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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14.62, "volume": 20144221, "typical_volume": 15099385.7, "trend": 14.961088, "fair_value": 14.243678, "relative_strength": 0.143305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.510942, "energy": 42.944803, "activity_lines": [ 14.166, 14.288398, 14.520639, 14.682622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.03, "volume": 22464426, "typical_volume": 15179615.25, "trend": 14.885672, "fair_value": 14.259886, "relative_strength": -4.741823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.886481, "energy": 32.104208, "activity_lines": [ 14.158667, 14.206939, 14.466153, 14.622552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.71, "volume": 19410889, "typical_volume": 15436490.7, "trend": 14.854476, "fair_value": 14.279236, "relative_strength": -0.156986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.34289, "energy": 14.982718, "activity_lines": [ 14.384, 14.272, 14.480801, 14.611218 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.43, "volume": 23449483, "typical_volume": 15955491.75, "trend": 14.826992, "fair_value": 14.293788, "relative_strength": -4.270191, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.593082, "energy": 16.601838, "activity_lines": [ 14.424, 14.289091, 14.470444, 14.583833 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }