{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e793726-9749-4264-a2d9-8c085185e233", "symbol": "DPT", "name": "S.T. Dupont S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.675, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.126, "architecture_energy": 45.924, "architecture_maturity": 25.866, "architecture_confidence": 91.79, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.25, "rotation_up": 16.84, "upward_expansion": 11.44, "deceleration": 39.32, "rotation_down": 60.95, "downward_expansion": 84.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0826, 0.083309, 0.084772, 0.086068 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0898, "trend_reference": 0.087753, "distance_from_trend": 0.023323, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.084171, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066877, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.982241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.017505, "excess_performance": -0.070817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020902, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072658, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020681, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017505, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691701, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 365759, "relative_activity": 3.011191, "balance": 0.691701, "dry_up": 1.192423, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047285, "annualized_volatility": 0.231536, "from_high_reference": -0.102, "from_low_reference": 0.282857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.087753, "fair_value_reference": 0.084171, "structural_low": 0.0722, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.013841, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.231527, "worst_return": -0.25139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009842, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007957, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.057348, "worst_return": -0.283146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018939, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.058559, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.015743, "worst_return": -0.317553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.93694, "energy": 35.708054, "activity_lines": [ 0.085747, 0.085985, 0.086968, 0.087897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.079, "volume": 34852, "typical_volume": 133001.9, "trend": 0.088587, "fair_value": 0.085012, "relative_strength": -15.941574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.498714, "energy": 66.516648, "activity_lines": [ 0.08344, 0.084676, 0.086112, 0.087256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0786, "volume": 163369, "typical_volume": 121107.1, "trend": 0.08822, "fair_value": 0.084715, "relative_strength": -16.209767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.525712, "energy": 75.405505, "activity_lines": [ 0.08148, 0.08344, 0.085276, 0.086612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0778, "volume": 15378, "typical_volume": 118202.4, "trend": 0.087807, "fair_value": 0.084405, "relative_strength": -17.836798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.156725, "energy": 82.075861, "activity_lines": [ 0.07976, 0.082207, 0.084422, 0.085939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0898, "volume": 365759, "typical_volume": 121466.55, "trend": 0.087753, "fair_value": 0.084171, "relative_strength": -6.982241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.126108, "energy": 45.924124, "activity_lines": [ 0.0826, 0.083309, 0.084772, 0.086068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }