{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e7b6a87-e2d0-4f1e-a393-56114a3e3d66", "symbol": "6645", "name": "Kim Forest Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.635, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.093, "architecture_energy": 32.092, "architecture_maturity": 29.167, "architecture_confidence": 62.537, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.76, "rotation_up": 10.31, "upward_expansion": 10.77, "deceleration": 62.03, "rotation_down": 66.34, "downward_expansion": 72.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.456667, 14.034545, 13.815476, 13.917957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.25, "trend_reference": 14.505, "distance_from_trend": -0.086522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.58289, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.501559, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -47.47359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.238506, "excess_performance": -0.679878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.501559, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077412, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.474736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238506, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.069132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93219, "relative_activity": 0.316299, "balance": 5.069132, "dry_up": 0.49812, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097533, "annualized_volatility": 0.396919, "from_high_reference": -0.499055, "from_low_reference": 0.162281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.505, "fair_value_reference": 26.58289, "structural_low": 11.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.041056, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.025336, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.457064, "worst_return": -0.21114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.087637, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.065285, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.288774, "worst_return": -0.132124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067293, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.112372, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.593812, "worst_return": -0.2062, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.360988, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039583, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058315, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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"trend": 15.291667, "fair_value": 27.455448, "relative_strength": -41.351286, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.790573, "energy": 49.025355, "activity_lines": [ 15.503333, 14.538182, 13.920238, 14.395699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.45, "volume": 343123, "typical_volume": 317324.0, "trend": 15.131667, "fair_value": 27.298382, "relative_strength": -46.084819, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.387068, "energy": 24.713532, "activity_lines": [ 14.896667, 14.471818, 13.871667, 14.276882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.85, "volume": 213000, "typical_volume": 317414.5, "trend": 14.986667, "fair_value": 27.13289, "relative_strength": -44.967265, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.053967, "energy": 13.181915, "activity_lines": [ 14.47, 14.47, 13.879762, 14.194194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.35, "volume": 188000, "typical_volume": 305928.35, "trend": 14.82, "fair_value": 26.965109, "relative_strength": -45.532371, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.37644, "energy": 23.766253, "activity_lines": [ 13.976667, 14.342727, 13.850476, 14.088602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.6, "volume": 93000, "typical_volume": 298160.9, "trend": 14.675, "fair_value": 26.803205, "relative_strength": -45.084111, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.525023, "energy": 30.060031, "activity_lines": [ 13.71, 14.235455, 13.84881, 14.009892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.25, "volume": 93219, "typical_volume": 294717.75, "trend": 14.505, "fair_value": 26.58289, "relative_strength": -47.47359, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.093318, "energy": 32.091877, "activity_lines": [ 13.456667, 14.034545, 13.815476, 13.917957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }