{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e83b034-ad44-4f08-b5ac-92e529949fbc", "symbol": "1202", "name": "Middle East Company for Manufacturing and Producing Paper", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.805, "architecture_energy": 61.437, "architecture_maturity": 9.244, "architecture_confidence": 84.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.46, "rotation_up": 10.08, "upward_expansion": 12.87, "deceleration": 38.1, "rotation_down": 68.02, "downward_expansion": 86.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.644, 17.034181, 17.480238, 17.598968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.27, "trend_reference": 18.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.040556, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.777564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.438877, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.488801, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.129975, "excess_performance": -0.098145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040556, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10299, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.438877, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006755, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174888, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.950623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2960245, "relative_activity": 0.771685, "balance": 0.950623, "dry_up": 0.483531, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06561, "annualized_volatility": 0.297583, "from_high_reference": -0.404893, "from_low_reference": 0.10422 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.0, "fair_value_reference": 30.777564, "structural_low": 15.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.002455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006471, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.177877, "worst_return": -0.227188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.036419, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.074745, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.433692, "worst_return": -0.245469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.21167, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.130148, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.517921, "worst_return": -0.251379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.449272, 17.67419, 17.80843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.89, "volume": 1402018, "typical_volume": 3734821.55, "trend": 18.101, "fair_value": 30.893461, "relative_strength": -23.049711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.687744, "energy": 73.214249, "activity_lines": [ 16.503333, 17.088, 17.509809, 17.65258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.27, "volume": 2960245, "typical_volume": 3836080.9, "trend": 18.0, "fair_value": 30.777564, "relative_strength": -17.488801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.805214, "energy": 61.437238, "activity_lines": [ 16.644, 17.034181, 17.480238, 17.598968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }