{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e872dad-4494-4881-aba4-f058f61162ec", "symbol": "JAVE", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - US Value Active UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.146, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.26, "architecture_energy": 85.025, "architecture_maturity": 49.994, "architecture_confidence": 80.599, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.12, "rotation_up": 53.27, "upward_expansion": 92.34, "deceleration": 47.81, "rotation_down": 29.2, "downward_expansion": 21.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.844667, 32.742546, 32.198857, 31.749882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.825001, "trend_reference": 31.306167, "distance_from_trend": 0.048515, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.807302, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180445, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.600399, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056996, "excess_performance": -0.113896, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038956, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022508, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056996, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.107367, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.107367, "dry_up": 0.405767, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009268, "annualized_volatility": 0.122635, "from_high_reference": -0.007709, "from_low_reference": 0.197993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.306167, "fair_value_reference": 27.807302, "structural_low": 29.065001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012317, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.018375, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.050042, "worst_return": -0.069842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041373, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016435, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.075331, "worst_return": 0.021133, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.06338, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.050878, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.06338, "worst_return": 0.06338, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 27.597934, "relative_strength": -6.265644, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.803121, "energy": 91.358169, "activity_lines": [ 32.421333, 32.078363, 31.403809, 31.13786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.02, "volume": 1780, "typical_volume": 464.0, "trend": 30.871167, "fair_value": 27.642377, "relative_strength": -4.61248, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.866718, "energy": 92.552708, "activity_lines": [ 32.661333, 32.303636, 31.593309, 31.284699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.875, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 489.0, "trend": 30.981167, "fair_value": 27.684919, "relative_strength": -3.566895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.67153, "energy": 90.795222, "activity_lines": [ 32.782333, 32.458909, 31.760738, 31.413979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.825001, "volume": 319, "typical_volume": 504.95, "trend": 31.0895, "fair_value": 27.726371, "relative_strength": -3.459515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.177412, "energy": 84.033665, "activity_lines": [ 32.825667, 32.581909, 31.915833, 31.532936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.825001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 504.6, "trend": 31.197834, "fair_value": 27.76716, "relative_strength": -3.977703, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.60642, "energy": 76.653115, "activity_lines": [ 32.845667, 32.679273, 32.063595, 31.644903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.825001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 504.6, "trend": 31.306167, "fair_value": 27.807302, "relative_strength": -6.600399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.260021, "energy": 85.024507, "activity_lines": [ 32.844667, 32.742546, 32.198857, 31.749882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }