{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e9482a1-a072-43fe-b3f8-2b2fc9c7d9b1", "symbol": "000078", "name": "Shenzhen Neptunus Bioengineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.833, "architecture_energy": 44.104, "architecture_maturity": 92.851, "architecture_confidence": 78.902, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.45, "rotation_up": 27.83, "upward_expansion": 24.8, "deceleration": 46.65, "rotation_down": 37.8, "downward_expansion": 63.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.698667, 1.661455, 1.88319, 2.231011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.74, "trend_reference": 2.690667, "distance_from_trend": -0.35332, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.679936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.350731, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.51014, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.528455, "excess_performance": -0.535855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.35332, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181754, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.350731, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.405101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.528455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.576749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 493775740, "relative_activity": 0.877441, "balance": 2.576749, "dry_up": 1.366276, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18214, "annualized_volatility": 0.829803, "from_high_reference": -0.694737, "from_low_reference": 0.279412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.690667, "fair_value_reference": 2.679936, "structural_low": 1.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.008584, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.016234, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.20283, "worst_return": -0.172619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004115, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.048804, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.313084, "worst_return": -0.052308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006963, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009521, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14486, "worst_return": -0.092308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 1.95, "volume": 1372355064, "typical_volume": 520780831.4, "trend": 2.904667, "fair_value": 2.709103, "relative_strength": -32.892833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.35491, "energy": 54.258276, "activity_lines": [ 1.735333, 1.679455, 2.110524, 2.463097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.53, "volume": 738400115, "typical_volume": 540197834.95, "trend": 2.814667, "fair_value": 2.698654, "relative_strength": -46.954298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.110065, "energy": 52.676912, "activity_lines": [ 1.699333, 1.649273, 2.017429, 2.374409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 470931926, "typical_volume": 552236891.5, "trend": 2.748, "fair_value": 2.68891, "relative_strength": -43.060893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.964842, "energy": 45.369025, "activity_lines": [ 1.682667, 1.642364, 1.939714, 2.296043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.74, "volume": 493775740, "typical_volume": 562745326.2, "trend": 2.690667, "fair_value": 2.679936, "relative_strength": -40.51014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.832793, "energy": 44.10437, "activity_lines": [ 1.698667, 1.661455, 1.88319, 2.231011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }